XPeng (XPEV) Updates Delivery Guidance, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

XPeng stock reacts to fresh delivery data and guidance

XPeng (XPEV) is back on investor radars after reporting August 2026 deliveries of 39,107 vehicles, a 4% year over year increase, alongside updated third quarter guidance for vehicle volumes and total revenue.

The latest guidance comes after a tough stretch for XPeng shareholders, with the stock at US$11.36, the 90 day share price return down 36.5%, and the year to date share price return down 44.4%, despite a small gain over the past week. Recent earnings in August showed a wider half year net loss alongside lower revenue, and the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 46%. This helps explain why the August delivery update is drawing close attention to whether selling pressure is easing or simply pausing.

Spot fresh EV momentum by comparing XPeng with a curated group of resilient auto and tech related stocks in the 74 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

XPeng now combines fresh delivery guidance, a widened recent loss and a sharply lower share price. Does that mix still tilt the risk reward towards buyers, or is the stock cheap for a reason as valuation work begins?

Most Popular Narrative: 49.2% Undervalued

The most followed XPeng narrative sees a fair value of $22.36 compared with the last close at $11.36, which implies a wide gap that hinges on ambitious growth and margin assumptions.

XPeng's rapid in-house development and deployment of proprietary AI hardware (Turing AI SoC) and vision-based ADAS are expected to significantly advance its vehicle autonomy and smart cockpit solutions, aligning with surging consumer demand for intelligent, software-centric vehicles and setting the stage for higher-margin software revenue and enhanced gross/net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what justifies almost doubling XPeng's current share price in this narrative? The fair value leans heavily on aggressive revenue growth, margin lift and a richer earnings multiple usually reserved for higher returning sectors. Curious how those moving parts are calibrated and how long they are projected to take effect?

Result: Fair Value of $22.36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, XPeng still faces pressure from ongoing net losses and intense Chinese EV price competition, which could squeeze margins and challenge the positive fair value narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this XPeng narrative.

Another view on XPeng valuation using sales multiples

The XPeng narrative leans on a fair value of $22.36, yet today the stock trades on a P/S ratio of 1x. That is higher than the US Auto industry at 0.7x, lower than peer average at 1.8x, and below a fair ratio of 1.4x. Is the discount pointing to caution or potential mispricing?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Mixed signals around XPeng can feel confusing, so it helps to move fast, review the same numbers, and form your own stance with the 2 key rewards.

Looking for more XPeng investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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