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To own Uber, you need to believe it can turn its global mobility and delivery platform into durable profits while managing capital-heavy bets on autonomy. The latest rollouts in Zagreb and Dubai, plus the Zoomcar tie-up, support its “access over ownership” story, but they do not fundamentally change the near term picture: the key upside catalyst remains disciplined profit growth in core Mobility and Delivery, while the biggest risk is that autonomous and related investments weigh on margins longer than expected.
Among recent updates, the expansion of Uber’s autonomous network in Dubai via Baidu’s Apollo Go sits closest to this thesis. It reinforces the idea that Uber wants to be the operating layer for both human and self-driving trips, rather than owning all the underlying hardware. For investors focused on catalysts, this matters because any improvement in AV unit economics or rider adoption could eventually help offset the current risk that autonomy stays loss making for years.
But while these AV partnerships sound exciting, investors should also understand how larger, slower to scale autonomy bets could pressure Uber’s profit profile if...
Read the full narrative on Uber Technologies (it's free!)
Uber Technologies' narrative projects $80.0 billion revenue and $11.6 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 13.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $2.0 billion earnings increase from $9.6 billion today.
Uncover how Uber Technologies' forecasts yield a $101.50 fair value, a 34% upside to its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts were already modeling Uber to reach about US$86.5 billion in revenue and US$13.6 billion in earnings by 2029, largely on the back of autonomy driven margin gains. In light of the new Zagreb and Dubai launches, it is worth asking whether those bullish expectations about AV powered unit economics and long term profitability are realistic, or whether this news might eventually push those forecasts even higher or, just as importantly, lower.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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