China Index Research Institute: The overall limited impact of existing housing sales on housing prices will guide housing enterprises to return to competition in product strength and quality

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the China Index Research Institute issued an article stating that on August 28, 2026, various departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Construction, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the General Administration of Financial Supervision, the People's Bank of China, and the Securities Regulatory Commission intensively released a number of major documents. After the introduction of the New Deal, there were also voices in the market saying “existing houses have arrived, housing prices have risen sharply.” The China Index Research Institute believes that this judgment is open to discussion. The pace of new projects entering the market has slowed down after the sale of existing homes, but the current supply is still quite sufficient, and it is unlikely that housing prices will rise sharply.

The China Index Research Institute is mainly based on two key factors: First, the relationship between supply and demand in the market has undergone major changes, and the current supply of new homes is sufficient.

After nearly 30 years of rapid development, there have been major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market. It has moved from strong demand for housing and short supply to structural oversupply. The era of housing shortages is over.

Although sales of existing homes have slowed the entry of new projects into the market in the short term, the current policy is not a “one-size-fits-all” policy. Instead, the “old method for old projects, new project new methods” classification policy arrangements will be implemented. Most of the stock and projects in progress will proceed at the original pace. The overall supply of new housing will still be sufficient. Existing housing sales will not cause a sharp reduction in short-term market supply, and the sharp rise in housing prices lacks supply-side support.

Looking at national data, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of July 2026, the area of newly built commercial housing for sale nationwide was about 409 million square meters. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, as of the end of July, the 50 key cities had a saleable area of 291 million square meters, and the new supply in the market was quite sufficient.

Second, from the cost side of housing enterprises, the current policy level has simultaneously introduced policy measures such as optimizing payment methods for land concession prices and increasing financing support, which are expected to ease and hedge the upward pressure on capital costs faced by housing enterprises to switch to existing housing sales.

Specifically, supporting policies are comprehensively implemented at multiple levels to provide strong support for the shift to existing housing sales.

First, development loan policies have been further optimized. By optimizing loan terms and usage arrangements, development loan support will be increased to help enterprises relieve the pressure of large upfront investment and long capital occupation cycles under the “build first, then sell” model for existing housing sales.

Second, capital market financing support continues to increase. Support is provided through multiple channels such as bond issuance and equity financing, broadening the medium- to long-term funding sources for enterprises, optimizing financing structures, etc., to reduce comprehensive financing costs for enterprises.

Third, optimizing land concession price payment methods and reducing land prices rationally will also directly reduce land costs for existing housing projects at the source. Recently, Guangzhou's first “Existing Home Sales Commitment System” plot was successfully sold. As supporting support, the government allowed the land concession to be paid in installments — the payment ratio should not be less than 50% within 30 days of signing the contract, and the full price should be paid within 2 years, which can ease the pressure on enterprises to pay early land payments.

Furthermore, the policy requires optimizing the project construction approval process and shortening the administrative approval time limit, and enterprises themselves are expected to absorb costs by improving quality and efficiency. In the process of industry transformation, housing enterprises are expected to improve operational efficiency, shorten construction cycles, and gradually absorb cost pressure through refined management, standardized construction, and supply chain collaboration, rather than simply transferring costs to home purchase prices. At the same time, at present, housing companies' sales return capital is still the number one priority, and it is expected that they will be more cautious in raising project prices.

Under the combined effects of these multiple factors, the comprehensive costs faced by housing enterprises switching to existing housing sales are expected to be effectively hedged, creating favorable conditions for a smooth transition.

According to a comprehensive analysis, the China Index Research Institute believes that the overall impact of existing housing sales on housing prices is limited. Existing housing sales will guide housing enterprises to return to product power and quality competition, push the industry from the old model of “high debt, high turnover, and high leverage” to a new model of high-quality development focusing on quality and efficiency. It will also cause the real estate market to return to rationality. Future housing prices will be determined more by factors such as actual supply and demand and housing location, quality, and service.