Shen Wan Hongyuan: Promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption and promoting a comprehensive increase in consumption policies

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Shen Wan Hongyuan released a research report saying that this round of policies covers a wide range of areas and has remarkable structural characteristics, focusing on activating endogenous demand and promoting consumption upgrading. The consumer sector has a foundation for restoration, focusing on four main lines: First, the bulk durable goods upgrade chain: the entire automobile industry chain, used cars, automobile aftermarket, smart home, and home appliance replacement. Second, people's livelihood just needs a circuit: the silver hair economy, consumer goods for infants and children. Policies continue to expand supply and broaden channels, and there is strong certainty about growth. Third, the booming upgrade circuit: AI hardware, green products, and healthy consumption correspond to the 10 trillion target, and the industry and consumption policies resonate. Fourth, Guochao and offline channel chains: time-honored domestic products, county retail, and sinking market channels, benefiting from the sinking of channels and the dividends of urban and rural commercial transformation.

Shen Wan Hongyuan's main views are as follows:

Incidents

On August 31, 2026, seven departments of the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, and the General Administration of Market Supervision jointly issued the “Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Upgrading of Commodity Consumption”. Based on building a strong domestic market and developing new quality productivity, they introduced systematic policy arrangements to boost consumption and expand domestic demand, setting out the path and goals for commodity consumption development during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. As an important gripper for promoting consumption and benefiting people's livelihood, commodity consumption is directly related to the achievement of residents' needs for a better life. This document forms a complete policy framework from multiple dimensions of target setting, key consumption tracks, and supporting guarantee systems, covering the four major sectors of durable consumer goods, daily consumer goods, specialty consumption, and upgraded consumption, while providing implementation support in urban and rural carriers, standard systems, brand building, finance, and market supervision.

Overall development goals

The document makes it clear that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China's commodity consumption scale continued to expand, the consumption structure was continuously optimized and upgraded, and the advantages of the hyperscale market were further unleashed. By 2030, the total retail sales of social consumer goods will aim to reach around 60 trillion yuan. Unlike previous short-term subsidy stimulus models, this policy abandons extensive stimulus and shifts to a long-term approach of system optimization, circulation improvement, supply upgrade, and scenario expansion, breaking down consumption blockages from multiple dimensions of supply, circulation, and demand. Currently, domestic consumption is in the endogenous recovery stage, and residents' desire to spend still needs to be boosted. The document covers the four major consumer circuits, and supports guarantee measures such as urban and rural commercial transformation, consumer finance, and market supervision to establish a complete consumer promotion policy framework, providing strong support for expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market.

The current policy focuses on the four major consumer circuits and combines multiple supporting guarantees to promote the expansion and quality of product consumption

1. Consumption of durable goods in bulk to strengthen domestic demand ballast. Bulk durable goods are a key driver for domestic demand. The policy focuses on the pain points of automobiles, homes, and home appliances to open up the entire chain. In the automotive sector, optimize automobile purchase restrictions and clean up unreasonable consumption restrictions; improve the used car circulation system, promote mutual recognition of invoices, cultivate automotive aftermarkets such as modifications, maintenance, and motorhome camping; build an information system for the entire life cycle of automobiles to improve the recycling system for end-of-life motor vehicles; speed up the layout of energy replenishment facilities for new energy vehicles and create consumption clusters along transportation routes. In terms of household appliances, promote the intelligent transformation of the whole house, build smart home experience centers; implement trade-in, improve the furniture recycling system for used household appliances, promote the “send new+receive” model, promote the sinking of recycling services in communities and counties, and break the circulation barriers of large consumer goods updates.

2. Quality daily consumption, stabilizing the basic consumption chassis. Food and beverages, textiles and clothing, and cultural and sports goods form the basic consumption market for residents. The policy strengthens the connection between production and marketing of agricultural products, makes up for shortcomings in cold chain logistics; supports local brands of tea and coffee, and pushes chain brands to sink into the county; encourages the integration of traditional culture in textiles and clothing to develop designer brands and national fashion; enriches the supply of outdoor sports and IP derivatives; and strengthens intellectual property protection. Through quality upgrades, brand cultivation, and channel decline, mass consumption potential is activated, and local daily necessities brands are helped to develop and grow.

3. Consumption characteristic of people's livelihood, boosting the supply of old, young and domestic goods. The key policy layout “one old, one young” just needed a racetrack. In the field of silver hair, we promote AI and brain computer technology to empower age-appropriate products, promote exoskeleton robots, smart mattresses, and health monitoring devices, promote age-appropriate products into supermarkets, communities and pension institutions, and explore certification mechanisms for silver hair products. In the field of infants, enterprises are encouraged to develop safe and intelligent baby food, toys, and nursing equipment, and explore second-hand recycling channels for baby products. At the same time, expand trendy domestic products, deepen the demonstration creation of time-honored brands; launch a “Foreign Trade Premium China Tour” to promote domestic sales of high-quality foreign trade products; and rely on the Expo and Consumer Fair to enrich the supply of international quality products to achieve diversification and complementarity in domestic consumer supply.

4. High-end upgrade consumption to create a green, intelligent and healthy incremental market. Green, smart, and healthy are the 10 trillion level new track built by policy priorities. Green consumption promotes new energy vehicles, energy-saving appliances, and green building materials, and improves the green product certification system; smart consumption lays out AI consumption pilot bases, popularizes smart wearables, smart homes, and service robots to create AI consumption experience scenarios; health consumption optimizes approval processes for health food and specialty food, and promotes the transformation of retail pharmacies into health posts. Use new technology to empower consumption upgrading and achieve two-way collaboration between consumption upgrading and industrial upgrading.

The policy focuses on commodity consumption and forms an important part of the “15th Five-Year Plan” consumption promotion system. Subsequent policies are expected to continue to increase, and it is expected to form a two-wheel drive policy pattern of goods and services

Each region will combine local industrial endowments to implement supporting initiatives such as automobile and home appliance replacement and county commercial transformation. Consumer finance instruments will be further enriched, and financial institutions will develop suitable credit products for bulk durable goods and upgraded consumption. Circulation-side reforms such as the reform of the used car system, the consumer goods recycling system, and the integration of domestic and foreign trade standards will continue to advance. Overall, consumption promotion policies during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period were continuous and stable.

Risk warning: macroeconomic growth is slowing; policy implementation falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies.