Cathay Pacific Haitong: Maintaining the “fluctuating upward trend” of energy metals and interpreting independent logic

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that there is a significant difference between the current market and the historical cycle. The pricing core of the industry is being driven by traditional real estate infrastructure demand, and a comprehensive shift to the reshaping of structural demand for “new energy+AI” and the resonance of supply-side rigid constraints. Each of the five major metal sectors has an independent industrial logic, showing the structural characteristics of “multiple flowering”. Under the influence of the dual factors of macroeconomic fluctuations and industrial sentiment, the bank believes that the overall sector will maintain a volatile upward trend.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Precious metals: find out the bottom, pick up the ranks

Oil prices were high in the early period, and inflation narratives suppressed short-term precious metals prices. After July, due to falling US economic data, expectations of US interest rate hikes weakened, and the bottom of gold prices proved to gradually rise steadily. The bank believes that the long-term upward trend in precious metals prices will not change. Currently, the gold sector's valuation is still low, making it extremely valuable for investment.

Industrial Metals: Supply and demand toughness intertwined with macroeconomic disturbances

The bank believes that the cycle span of industrial metals may exceed market expectations. The demand side has undergone structural changes due to the development of new energy and AI (power grid transformation, data centers); the supply side faces rigid constraints such as declining mineral availability, increased geographical risk, and insufficient capital expenditure. Copper: US copper tariffs are expected to approach, global competition for resources may intensify, and supply constraints are strong. At the same time, America's high deficit and debt expansion continue to weaken the dollar's credit, and resource-side values are expected to continue to be revalued. Aluminum: The macro aspect has improved. The geographical risk premium in the Middle East continues to be compounded by the continuous removal of domestic aluminum ingots to jointly support the operation of aluminum prices. Furthermore, the current sector is undervalued and has high dividend asset attributes.

Strategic metals: supply rigidity, resource scarcity highlighted

Rare earths: This round of the market has completely broken away from the logic of demand penetration rate driving and has changed to pure supply drive. The growth rate of domestic rare earth quotas has slowed significantly. Coupled with the implementation of gray production regulations and a white list system, the industry is shifting from extensive expansion to refined control. Industrial chain profits are expected to shift to the midstream smelting separation end, and concentration will increase markedly.

Natural uranium: As a strategic resource, the supply is extremely rigid, and the increase in demand for nuclear power driven by AI will significantly widen the gap, and we are optimistic that prices will continue to rise in the long term.

Tantalum: Short-term supply disruptions, demand-side AI drives rapid growth in tantalum capacitors and tantalum targets, and rising average prices for tantalum and tantalum processed products.

Energy Metals: Chess to the middle game, no change in the background of growth

The bank believes that the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are strong, stocks continue to be removed, compounded by uncertain supply in Jiangxi and policy disturbances such as overseas Zimbabwe, and that there are large structural game opportunities during the year.

Steel: gradual improvement in supply and demand

The bottom of the industry is clear, profits are gradually improving, and emphasis is placed on bottom layout opportunities. Continued upward flexibility and space mainly depends on substantial policy intervention in the industry and production capacity clearance.

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