Does ExxonMobil’s Bid For Shell’s U.S. Chemicals Assets Reshape The Bull Case For XOM?

• Earlier this week, reports emerged that ExxonMobil Holdings joined a group of bidders for Shell’s U.S. chemicals division, a portfolio of four plants across Louisiana, Texas, and Pennsylvania that could be sold for about US$8.00 billion as Shell continues to reshape its asset base.
• This potential acquisition would deepen ExxonMobil’s U.S. chemicals presence at a time when Shell is monetizing assets that recently contributed meaningfully to its quarterly earnings mix.
• We’ll now examine how ExxonMobil’s interest in Shell’s U.S. chemicals assets could influence its existing investment narrative around growth and portfolio mix.

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ExxonMobil Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own ExxonMobil today, you need to be comfortable with a company still centered on large-scale oil, gas, and chemicals, while gradually building lower-carbon options. The Shell U.S. chemicals bidding reports fit that story by potentially tilting the mix further toward chemicals, but they do not materially change that the key near term catalyst is execution on North American and Guyana growth, while a major risk remains long term demand and policy pressure on hydrocarbons.

Against this backdrop, ExxonMobil’s decision to pause its Baytown blue hydrogen project due to insufficient demand feels highly relevant. It underlines how early and uncertain some low carbon businesses remain, even as Shell looks to sell chemicals assets that recently contributed strongly to its earnings. For investors, that contrast puts more weight back on ExxonMobil’s core upstream and chemicals performance as the primary driver of returns in the near term.

Yet beneath this potential chemicals expansion, investors should also be aware of the longer term risk that accelerating decarbonization could...

Read the full narrative on ExxonMobil Holdings (it's free!)

ExxonMobil Holdings' narrative projects $369.2 billion revenue and $46.2 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 4.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $20.9 billion earnings increase from $25.3 billion today.

Uncover how ExxonMobil Holdings' forecasts yield a $169.91 fair value, a 6% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts already expected ExxonMobil to reach about US$506.7 billion in revenue and US$55.1 billion in earnings by 2029, which is far more bullish than consensus, and they view tight supply and Iran risk as an upside catalyst that may need a rethink in light of Shell’s U.S. chemicals sale process.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on ExxonMobil Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as 28% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your ExxonMobil Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free ExxonMobil Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate ExxonMobil Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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