Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a lower open Monday morning as investors digest a severe escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, rising trade tensions with Canada, and a pivotal week for labor market data.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bearish for the Aug. 31 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 31?” contract currently reflects a 36% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are confronting a resurgence of Middle East violence alongside crucial incoming economic indicators and corporate earnings:

• Lower Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a negative open. At the last check, Dow Jones futures fell 0.26%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.27%, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.23%, and Russell 2000 futures were down 0.18%.
• Geopolitics & Energy Spike: Tensions exploded over the weekend after the U.S. military struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone strikes on U.S. air bases in Jordan on Sunday. The renewed fighting sent oil prices soaring; Brent crude futures surged 5.00% to $90.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 2.53% to $85.51 a barrel.
• Trade Tensions: Adding to geopolitical anxieties, President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with Canada over the weekend, labeling the country “the worst” for trade abuses while defending his tariffs as having “saved” the U.S. auto industry.
• Economic Data & Earnings: Domestically, the spotlight shifts back to the economy with the critical August jobs report due on Friday. Earnings from AI infrastructure players like Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:HPE), and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), as well as cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:PANW), are also on deck this week.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising bond yields worldwide, the global bull market in stocks is pressing on. According to market experts Ed Yardeni and Toby Hearst, investors are currently interpreting higher yields as a sign of economic growth rather than a threat to it. The U.S. 10-year yield sits at 4.73%, while yields in the UK and Australia have climbed above 5.00%.

Yardeni notes that the “Go Global” trade is still working, with AI-linked markets like South Korea and Taiwan reclaiming leadership positions. The laggards continue to be markets bogged down by domestic problems rather than those exposed to the global business cycle, suggesting the broader macroeconomic fundamentals remain constructive for equities.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Aug. 28 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $80,444 in total trading volume.

On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. The SPY was down 0.23% to $769.35, while the QQQ declined by 065% to $716.43. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.03% lower at $535.06.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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