AI computing power+rod fiber cable industry chain, Gaokeqiao Light Guide (09963) performance reversal

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in 2026, the optical fiber “supercycle” triggered by AI computing power will drive a sharp rise in volume and price in the global optical fiber market, and AI computing power clusters under mass construction are becoming a new growth engine for the optical fiber industry. According to agency data, in 2027, the share of global demand for optical fiber brought about by AI will jump from less than 5% in the past to 35%. The core logic of this round of recovery in the optical fiber industry comes from the upgrading of structural demand driven by AI computing power construction. Demand for optical fiber with data center interconnection and high-end computing power continues to explode. High-specification, low-loss, high-fiber count optical cables are in short supply, and the profit center of the industry has moved significantly upward. The leading performance in the industry was greatly realized. The net profit of Changfei Optical Fiber and Hengtong Optoelectronics all doubled in the first half of the year, and the gross margin of the core optical communications business exceeded 60%.

In this context, Gaokeqiao Guang Guang (09963), a Hong Kong stock small-disk optical communications company, handed over a reversal report that turned a loss into profit, achieving net profit of HK$42.32 million, an increase of 434.66% over the previous year. The current interim results only reflect the results of the recovery of the original overseas business, and do not include key mergers and acquisitions. After the official merger of the Hangzhou prefabricated rod factory in the second half of the year, the company's performance is expected to rise for the second time.

1. AI is restructuring the demand structure of the optical fiber industry, and the sector's profit center continues to move upward

Over the past two years, the optical fiber industry has continued to be in a sluggish cycle of overcapacity and pressure on procurement prices, and the gross margins of most manufacturers have been reduced to a low level. In 2026, the industry logic will be completely restructured, and the main growth force will shift from traditional telecom infrastructure to AI computing power and large-scale data center construction. A 10,000 card AI computing power cluster uses 5 to 10 times more fiber than traditional data centers.

Computing power infrastructure has been implemented on a large scale, driving massive demand for high-speed optical interconnection. The supply and demand for high-end optical cables is tight. The industry has completely bid farewell to low prices and entered a new stage of technology premium, quality premium, and delivery premium. The gross margin of leading companies in the optical communications business generally exceeded 60%, and the overall profit recovery of the industrial chain is clear.

The current upward cycle of the industry has just begun, and AI computing power capital expenditure is sustainable, providing long-term support for fiber optic cable demand and providing a solid industry beta foundation for the recovery of Gaokeqiao Optoelectronics's performance.

2. Strong reversal of mid-term results, complete confirmation of the inflection point in the main business

Apart from the new assets, the company's original overseas main business has substantially reversed losses. According to the company's profit forecast, in the first half of 2026, the company recorded profit attributable to shareholders of HK$42.315 million and a loss of HK$12.6 million in the same period last year, achieving a key profit and loss reversal.

During the period, the company's revenue was HK$143 million, gross profit was drastically recovered, compounded accounts receivable depreciated and reversed, and the profit quality was solid. Compared to the industry trough in 2025, the company's revenue declined sharply at the time and experienced gross losses, which fully reflected the operating pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises during the downward cycle. After a year, the company's revenue returned to 100 million yuan, gross profit changed from negative to positive, and gross margin returned to a healthy range, reflecting product price increases, the share of high-end orders increased, and capacity utilization improved across the board.

The company's main business covers all categories of optical fiber, optical cable and fiber core. Relying on production capacity in Hong Kong and Thailand, the company is deeply involved in the ASEAN operator market, with a stable customer structure and mature export channels. The asset-light, overseas front-line model responds faster and is more flexible during the recovery phase of the industry. At the same time, the company officially changed its name to “Gaokeqiao Light Guide” in August, indicating that the company focuses on the main optical communication business, has a more pure strategic positioning, and adapts to the long-term upward trend of the industry.

3. Core incremental advance: Hangzhou's high-quality assets are not consolidated, and there is plenty of room for annual performance

When interpreting this interim report, the market should pay attention to the fact that the impressive profits in the first half of 2026 are not the company's actual production capacity ceiling, and upstream asset mergers and acquisitions that were implemented during the year have not yet been incorporated into the report.

The company completed the 51% share acquisition of Hangzhou Fortis Optoelectronics in July 2026. The delivery time was after the end of the interim report period on June 30, so prefabricated rod production capacity, optical fiber production capacity and corresponding profit were not reflected in the mid-term data, and will be fully consolidated starting in the second half of the year.

Currently, the production capacity of the world's leading optical fiber prefabricated rod manufacturers is generally operating at a high load. At the same time, their production process is complicated, the construction, commissioning and certification cycle is long, and the production expansion cycle is 18 to 24 months. Rigid restrictions on the upstream supply side make the industry's production capacity unable to respond quickly to the rise in demand brought about by AI computing power, etc., leading to a continuously expanding supply and demand gap. Hangzhou Fortis Optoelectronics has mature upstream production capacity, especially precast rod production capacity, and is a high-quality asset with complete upstream core manufacturing capabilities. The transaction is backed by profit: The promised profit for the 2026 fiscal year is not less than 50 million yuan, the corresponding acquisition valuation is not high, the cost performance ratio is outstanding, and the performance is very certain.

This merger and acquisition fundamentally compensates for the shortcomings in the Gaokeqiao photoconductor industry chain. For a long time, prefabricated optical fiber rods have been the most profitable link in the industry and the strongest barriers. They are also the key for leading companies to maintain high gross profits. Through the acquisition, the company successfully opened up the self-sufficiency of upstream optical rods. At the same time, the company and controlling shareholders locked in a stable sales channel for three years. From 2026 to 2028, the domestic optical fiber sales ceiling increased year by year, successfully opening up the previously empty mainland market.

Since then, the company has formed a complete layout of optical fiber production capacity in Hong Kong, overseas base in Thailand, production capacity of upstream precast rods in Hangzhou+domestic sales channels. Profits of over HK$40 million in the first half of the year were only the starting point of cyclical recovery. New and old production capacity resonated in the second half of the year, and full-year results clearly had the potential to exceed expectations.

4. Thailand's location has a first-mover advantage to build differentiated overseas barriers

Compared to mainland manufacturers, the biggest differentiating advantage of Gaokeqiao Light Guide is its Southeast Asian layout, which is ten years ahead of the previous generation. The company went public as early as 2017 and landed at its production base in Thailand to deeply cultivate the ASEAN operator market and avoid the cruel domestic collection price war.

Southeast Asia currently has a double dividend: first, traditional telecom 5G and broadband construction is growing steadily, and demand just continues to exist; second, the region has become a global investment hotspot for data centers and computing power, and demand for high-end optical cables is rapidly expanding. Combined with the trend of offshore supply chains, companies with local production capacity and local delivery capabilities are scarce.

The company has accumulated stable customer relationships and delivery capabilities over the years of localized operation, and the overseas market continues to benefit from the recovery of the industry. At a time when leading companies are going overseas, the company's first-mover advantage continues to be realized, and the misplaced competitive advantage is prominent.

5. The high elasticity characteristics of small markets are remarkable, and the inflection point value is outstanding

Although the company's revenue and profit scale is less than that of industry giants, during the cycle reversal phase, the marginal elasticity of small-cap inflection point companies is far higher than that of high-base leaders.

First, the company achieved a complete reversal from losses to profits at the level of 10 million, and the operating inflection point was extremely high; second, the gross margin was quickly restored from negative values to a reasonable level in the industry, improving the slope leading; third, the business is highly focused on optical communication, without being dragged down by redundant business, and can fully absorb the dividends of this round of industry. In the context of the continued boom in AI optical communication, the company is a typical “low inflection point+accelerated performance” breed.

6. Objective sorting out risk factors

While the market is improving, we still need to look at potential variables rationally:

The risk of industry cycle fluctuations. If future computing power capital expenditure slows down or additional production capacity is released, it may suppress product prices and gross profit;

The risk of mergers and acquisitions, and the subsequent growth of the Hangzhou factory depends on capacity climbing and channel digestion;

The company is the target of the small market value of Hong Kong stocks, and its liquidity and valuation fluctuate relatively much.

epilogue

In the first half of 2026, thanks to the booming development of global AI computing power network construction, Gaokeqiao Optoelectronics successfully turned a loss into a profit, completely breaking out of the bottom of the cycle. More importantly, having an independent optical bar, optical fiber, and optical cable industry chain layout advantage, combined with factors such as Hangzhou's combined production capacity and domestic channel volume in the second half of the year, will open a second growth curve.

With a misplaced overseas layout, a complete industrial chain upgrade, and a clear main business strategy, the company is on the cusp of the upward cycle of AI optical communication. The inflection point of short-term performance is clear, and the medium- to long-term growth logic is clear. It is an undervaluation target with strong elasticity and clear increments in the fiber optic recovery market.