Revenue Miss: MIXUE Group Fell 11% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

MIXUE Group (HKG:2097) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.0% to HK$212 in the week after its latest half-year results. Revenues were CN¥15b, 11% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of CN¥15.65 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, MIXUE Group's 21 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CN¥33.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 10% to CN¥12.99 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥37.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥16.64 in 2026. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about MIXUE Group's prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for MIXUE Group

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 12% to HK$326. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic MIXUE Group analyst has a price target of HK$508 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$180. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.6% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.1% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - MIXUE Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of MIXUE Group's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple MIXUE Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.