MiniMax Group Inc. (HKG:100) Just Reported, And Analysts Assigned A HK$628 Price Target

There's been a notable change in appetite for MiniMax Group Inc. (HKG:100) shares in the week since its half-yearly report, with the stock down 13% to HK$300. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of US$117m being 2.9% less than what the analysts had been modelling. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering MiniMax Group are now predicting revenues of US$451.9m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 174% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 53% to US$2.49. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$385.1m and losses of US$1.98 per share in 2026. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts lifting this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share numbers to reflect the cost of achieving this growth.

Check out our latest analysis for MiniMax Group

Spiting the revenue upgrading, the average price target fell 6.4% to HK$628, clearly signalling that higher forecast losses are a valuation concern. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MiniMax Group at HK$1,301 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$140. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that MiniMax Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6x annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 211% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 33% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MiniMax Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of MiniMax Group's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for MiniMax Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - MiniMax Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.