Market silence before Walsh's speech: BTC long and short game and key resistance

According to Woofun AI, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Kevin Warsh) will deliver a keynote address at the Jackson Hole Forum at 10 a.m. ET, marking his first time speaking at the forum as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Prior to this point, the cryptocurrency market showed a clear silence, with investors awaiting this key macro event to clarify the future policy framework.

This wait-and-see sentiment did not come out of nowhere, but rather stemmed from the market experiencing a round of sharp fluctuations driven by macroeconomic policies before, and is currently in a consolidation period after momentum has run out. Walsh's remarks are likely to change market expectations about interest rate paths and bond market trends, thus becoming a decisive catalyst for breaking the current price impasse. After experiencing an almost vertical rise, market participants are carefully evaluating the next direction, and any hasty move could trigger drastic repricing.

The root cause is a new initiative launched by the US Treasury in August to increase the liquidity of established government bonds. The department raised the purchase limit for 10-30-year long-term bonds that can be repurchased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.

This policy adjustment directly led to an initial decline in long-term bond yields and simultaneously boosted the prices of cryptocurrencies and gold. Notably, this is not a new asset purchase plan from the Federal Reserve, and the $4 billion is only the upper limit rather than the promised purchase amount, but the signal is significant enough to trigger a drastic adjustment in market leverage.

Woofun AI on-chain data shows that shorting power provided an important impetus for the initial rise. Coinglass recorded the eighth-largest single-day short liquidation event at the time, and short positions accounted for 85% of all liquidation transactions. As the number of open futures contracts denominated in Bitcoin fell by 11%, the leverage effect in the market gradually weakened, reflecting the withdrawal process of speculative funds after short positions were forced to close.

At the same time, cash buyers injected a net increase of about $2.23 billion through Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US market. The issuance of new ETF shares met investors' needs and showed the involvement of actual purchases.

Structurally, changes in spot demand are reshaping chip distribution. Glassnode reports that cryptocurrencies are flowing out of exchanges and are beginning to be drawn into different types of wallets. This outflow of capital from trading places does not necessarily mean an imminent sale; on the contrary, it may reduce the immediate availability of tradable supply in the market, thereby supporting the price.

However, the upward momentum gradually slowed as early buyers began to make profits. Bitcoin's price is currently close to the tight trading zone between $81,000 and $86,000, which poses significant resistance. Holders who previously bought within this price range may choose to sell once the price recovers, thereby suppressing further room for growth. Since Bitcoin can often lead the overall market trend, it is difficult for it to break through this price range and may also inhibit the price performance of other assets.

This delicate balance between supply and demand makes it difficult for the market to maintain its previous strong upward trend in the absence of a new catalyst, and instead enter a volatile phase centered on digesting profit markets.

The more critical variable is the differentiation in multi-asset technology, which reveals differences in the sensitivity of different cryptocurrencies to the macro environment. After experiencing sharp fluctuations, Bitcoin's current trend is in a narrow upward channel. Its 4-hour RSI (Relative Strength Index) has fallen to the middle level of more than 50, indicating that the previous overbought state has been mitigated, but there has been no obvious downward trend. As long as buyers continue to maintain the lower limit of this channel, Bitcoin remains the most structured asset among the three. Ethereum, on the other hand, remained above the upward trend line, but continued to encounter resistance at the top of the price range after the rebound, and its RSI indicator has returned to more than 50 levels.

Buyers are still trying to support higher lows, while sellers continue to block price increases above the price range. Currently, Ethereum has not been able to clearly break through either side of this range. In contrast, Ripple (XRP) experienced the most severe decline. Its price fell from close to $1.70 to around $1.40, and is currently in a descending channel. Its RSI indicator is above 40 levels, reflecting a weaker short-term trend compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Although this channel can still be viewed as a bullish signal, Ripple still needs to go through three tests before this pattern becomes more reliable. Only when the price can break through this channel and still achieve a breakthrough when tested again can it be confirmed that the upward trend will continue.

Looking ahead, policy expectations and market interpretations will determine the final direction. Reuters reports that the market's focus is on continuing inflation and whether Walsh will explain what kind of countermeasures the Federal Reserve will take if the inflation rate continues to rise above the 2% target. Some policymakers are already advocating higher interest rates, while Walsh generally avoids giving clear forward-looking guidance. According to a Bloomberg analysis, if the Federal Reserve can send clear signals about inflation, then this will benefit the performance of long-term bonds.

If investors believe that the Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining price stability, they may not demand excessive compensation for long-term inflation risks. As a result, the yield on long-term bonds will fall, and bond prices will rise accordingly. However, the reaction of bonds with different maturities on the yield curve will not necessarily be the same: if the Federal Reserve issues a warning that inflation will continue, the yield on 2-year bonds may rise; while if the content of the speech mitigates market concerns about long-term inflation, the yield on 30-year bonds may fall. For the cryptocurrency market, various factors come into play: lower long-term returns may increase market risk appetite, while stronger dollar trends and higher short-term borrowing costs may discourage this preference.

Standard Chartered Bank, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), and Peter Schiff each came to different conclusions about Bitcoin's rise: Standard Chartered believes this development is beneficial to Bitcoin, while Schiff is more optimistic about gold, and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) questions whether this plan can actually control the yield of long-term bonds. The market's reaction doesn't just depend on whether the comments are hawkish or dovish; the liquidation effects brought about by automated trading orders and leverage can cause large fluctuations within seconds. Source note: The time of the speech was determined according to the official schedule of the Federal Reserve. Policy expectations are from Reuters and Bloomberg, market position data is from Glassnode, and chart observation data is from a screenshot of the four-hour cycle of TradingView provided by Coinbase (COIN.US) on August 28, 2026; while the K-line has not yet closed, the relevant values may change.