China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited Just Missed EPS By 44%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited (HKG:817) just released its latest half-year report and things are not looking great. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of CN¥22b missed by 14%, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.041 fell short of forecasts by 44%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from China Jinmao Holdings Group's 14 analysts is for revenues of CN¥60.7b in 2026. This reflects a notable 8.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 151% to CN¥0.071. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥59.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.074 in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on China Jinmao Holdings Group after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for China Jinmao Holdings Group

There's been no major changes to the price target of HK$1.96, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic China Jinmao Holdings Group analyst has a price target of HK$2.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$1.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that China Jinmao Holdings Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 19% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 9.8% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 1.5% annually. Not only are China Jinmao Holdings Group's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Jinmao Holdings Group. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for China Jinmao Holdings Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - China Jinmao Holdings Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.