Regal Court: Property prices in Hong Kong are expected to rise by more than 10% in 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Chen Haichao, head of the Ricard Real Estate Research Department, said that after many months of upsurge, the Hong Kong property market took advantage of the momentum, but it is expected that after price consolidation in the third quarter, property prices will still rise by more than 10% throughout the year. According to the latest data released by the Differential Estimation Service today, the private residential sales price index for July 2026 was 321.5 points, down 0.46% from 323.0 points in June. It was also the first decline in 16 months before the end of the 13-month period. Compared to the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, the current property price is still down 19.24%.

Property prices weakened in July of this year, mainly reflecting actual market conditions from late June to early July. Although US interest rates remained unchanged at that time, the war in the Middle East was repeated, boosting oil prices and flooded the market with the haze of interest rate hikes; in addition, Hong Kong stocks once fell below the 23,000 mark and met with the World Cup tournament, etc., which put pressure on property prices. Looking ahead to August, Chen Haichao pointed out that in the past period, during the peak summer vacation period, market conditions were still slow. It is expected that property prices will still be slightly pressured in August. It is estimated that they will have to recover in September. Therefore, property prices may drop slightly by 0.15% throughout the third quarter, ending the previous five consecutive quarters of upward trend. However, benefiting from a steady economic trend in Hong Kong and a recovery in the stock market, the fourth quarter is expected to rebound. Along with the increase in the first half of the year, property prices are still optimistic that the whole year will rise by 12%.

In terms of rent trends, the latest figures from the Differential Assessment Service show that in July 2026, the rent index rose by another 0.78% month-on-month to 207.4 points, the second largest month-on-month increase in the past 11 months. Rents have now risen and peaked for 9 consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 3.75% over the period. Furthermore, since December 2024, rents have been flat or rising for 20 consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of as much as 8.08%. Chen Haichao predicts that during the peak summer vacation season, rental demand is strong. With the joint support of Singaporeans, international students, and even local demand, rents in August and September are likely to rise by nearly 1% month-on-month, driving up nearly 3% in the third quarter, challenging the biggest increase in the nine quarters since the third quarter of 2024.