Kerry Properties Limited Just Missed EPS By 27%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Kerry Properties Limited (HKG:683) just released its latest interim report and things are not looking great. It looks like quite a negative result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of HK$5.6b missed by 18%, and statutory earnings per share of HK$0.51 fell short of forecasts by 27%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Kerry Properties, is for revenues of HK$13.8b in 2026. This implies an uneasy 19% reduction in Kerry Properties' revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 82% to HK$1.33. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of HK$14.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$1.49 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Kerry Properties

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$24.58, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Kerry Properties' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Kerry Properties analyst has a price target of HK$27.80 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$21.20. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Kerry Properties is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 35% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Kerry Properties is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$24.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Kerry Properties going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Kerry Properties you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.