AlphaValue/Baader Europe Updates Société Générale Forecasts Amid Retail Banking Growth, French Macroeconomic Risks

04:42 AM EDT, 08/26/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe updated its financial forecasts for Société Générale (GLE.PA), citing expectations of continued recovery in the group's French retail banking segment and flagging macroeconomic uncertainty in France. In a Tuesday note, the research firm raised its 2026 EPS projection by 10.1% to 9.19 euros, mainly driven by a "slightly" higher estimated revenue. For 2027, on the other hand, the EPS forecast was lowered by 16.7% to 9.24 euros, while the expected revenue was bumped up. "We continue to see macro deterioration occurring later on in H2-26/H1-27, putting a delayed strain on asset quality vs our previous projections, leading to a downgrade of our 2027 forecasts, with loan loss projections revised higher from EUR1.8bn (40bp CoR) to EUR2.8bn (55bp CoR)," analysts said. "Part of the downgrade of LLPs also comes on the back of our updated French macro scenario, which now sees a greater uncertain political, fiscal and macro situation ahead of the French presidential elections and post-the elections, with SocGen being the most domestically exposed French bank. While FRB revenue should remain resilient in the face of this environment, we see the risks percolating through LLPs over the medium-term." Looking further ahead, analysts anticipate that the French banking group would see a recovery in 2028, against a 2027 filled with uncertainties. The reduce-rated stock has a price target of 81.9 euros.