CITIC Construction Investment: Global demand for caviar expands, overseas brands disperse and embrace Chinese production

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that historically, the US was the largest supplier of caviar, but it lacked pricing power, and wild caviar was rapidly depleted. At the price level, caviar from the 1950s already has obvious high-end food attributes. In terms of purchasing power, the price of caviar imported from Germany in the 80s is higher than the current actual price. Overseas caviar is dominated by family businesses, which highlight the characteristics of personalized and high-end brands, and the desire to expand production is low. Brand-side fragmentation, with companies such as Imperial Caviar taking the lead in embracing Chinese caviar. On the demand side, the wealth effect of high-end customers and innovative eating methods among young middle class groups are driving the expansion of global caviar demand.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Historical review: The United States was once the largest supplier of caviar in the world

The United States was once the world's largest supplier of caviar. Wild sturgeon resources in North America are highly abundant, but early commercial utilization capacity was limited. Sturgeon was once regarded as a cheap or even low-value aquatic product. Technology and traffic conditions are mature, the US Delaware River caviar industry is gathering at an accelerated pace, overfishing is compounded by environmental damage, and the supply of wild caviar is rapidly drying up.

Price review: The price of caviar imported from Europe in the 80s was higher than the current one

In the 20th century, caviar prices experienced a marked rise in the overall price center. The core driving force was the continuous contraction of wild sturgeon resources and the high concentration of global supply. Caviar from the 1950s already has obvious high-end food properties, and there is a big difference in price between different qualities and markets. In 1953, the monthly salary of an ordinary Soviet worker could theoretically only buy about 5.4 kg of caviar. In terms of purchasing power, the price of caviar imported from Germany in the 80s is higher than the current actual price. The supply of caviar declined rapidly in the early 1990s. The core reason was that the original national monopoly and regulatory system collapsed due to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and illegal fishing and smuggling increased rapidly, impacting import prices in the international market to a certain extent. Prices rose again in the late 90s as sturgeon stocks continued to be depleted.

Overseas landscape: dominated by family businesses, low desire to expand production, fragmented brands

Most overseas caviar companies are family businesses, which highlight personalized and high-end brand characteristics, and the desire to expand production on the farming side is low. Imperial Caviar is a caviar importer and high-end brand in Berlin, Germany. It is the first to deeply bind Chinese caviar, and its official website clearly lists Kaluga Queen as a long-term production partner.

Demand expansion: wealth effect for high-end customers+innovative eating methods for young middle class groups

Traditional high-net-worth consumers are still the basic market for caviar. The core driving force for young consumers to buy caviar is shifting from “traditional luxury recognition” to “social communication+low-threshold luxury experience”. The consumption decision logic is clearly different from traditional high-net-worth people. Many restaurants have introduced products such as “caviar+potatoes” to lower the consumption threshold and enrich consumption scenarios.

risk analysis

1. Heavy biological assets, slow asset turnover, and continuous production expansion; 2. Non-European and American expansion is limited, and domestic brands are unrecognized in Europe and the US; 3. Geopolitical risks.