CICC: Keeping Cinda Biotech (01801) outperforming the industry rating target price of HK$118.3

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report stating that it maintained Cinda Biotech (01801)'s outperforming industry rating and basically kept the 2026 net profit forecast unchanged at 2.43 billion yuan. Considering the costs required for international expansion, the 2027 net profit forecast was lowered by 5.2% to 3.64 billion yuan. Based on the DCF model, the target price remains unchanged at HK$118.3 based on the DCF model, with 18.2% upside compared to the current stock price, taking into account the company's aggressive 2030 guidance and increasing certainty in profit release.

CICC's main views are as follows:

1H26 profit was slightly higher than the forecast

The company announced 1H26 results: revenue of 8.62 billion yuan, +44.8% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to mother was 1.25 billion yuan, +50.2% year on year, and non-IFRS net profit of 1.7 billion yuan, +40.5% year over year. Profit slightly exceeded expectations, mainly due to better-than-expected cost control.

Strong growth in product revenue combined with continuous improvement in operating efficiency, the company entered a period of profit release

In 1H26, the company's product revenue was 8.20 billion yuan, +56.7% year-on-year, of which revenue in the second quarter exceeded 4.3 billion yuan, an increase of more than 10% over the previous quarter. According to the company's announcement, as of the semi-annual report, the company's product portfolio had been expanded to 20 models, 13 of which were included in the national medical insurance catalogue, and two new products, abecilil and quizatinib hydrochloride tablets, were introduced. The bank anticipates that the volume of high-potential single products in the integrated pipeline, such as mastradiol peptides and teturozumab, which was first covered by health insurance in 2026, contributed to a good increase. The company's sales expense ratio decreased by 2.4 ppt year on year in the first half of the year, and the management expense ratio decreased by 1.7 ppt year on year, further helping to release profits.

The first proposed revenue guide for 2030 was 35 to 40 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations

Based on the previous 2027 revenue guideline of 20 billion yuan, the new guidelines mean about 20-26% of the revenue CAGR for 2027-2030E. The bank believes that the high growth forecast for the company comes from confidence in the overseas commercialization potential of large international single products such as IBI363, IBI343, and IBI324, and that sustainable commercial revenue growth and profit release are expected to be a strong support for the company's valuation base.

According to the company announcement, R&D catalytic suggestions focus on:

IBI363 melanoma registration clinical data is expected to be read in 2H26. The company plans to submit domestic NDAs from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027; 1L NSCLC and 1L CRC are expected to read PoC data in 2026-2027; 1L gastric cancer data has been selected for the 2026 ESMO rapid oral report; IBI343 will complete 1L pancreatic cancer and gastric cancer PoC in 2026-2027. IBI324 will launch a global multi-center registered clinical trial at 2H26. IBI3001 selected for 2026 ESMO oral report.

Risk warning: R&D failure, costs exceeding expectations, foreign cooperation falling short of expectations, overseas risks.