Revenue Beat: Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 5.4% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

As you might know, Shanghai Henlius Biotech, Inc. (HKG:2696) recently reported its interim numbers. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of CN¥3.6b coming in 5.4% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥1.51, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Shanghai Henlius Biotech after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Shanghai Henlius Biotech's eight analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be CN¥7.51b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.0% to CN¥1.74. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥7.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.85 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for Shanghai Henlius Biotech

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of HK$102, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Shanghai Henlius Biotech's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Shanghai Henlius Biotech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$120 and the most bearish at HK$91.66 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shanghai Henlius Biotech's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Shanghai Henlius Biotech's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Shanghai Henlius Biotech is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at HK$102, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Shanghai Henlius Biotech analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shanghai Henlius Biotech you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.