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    AutoZone (AZO) Gains Attention Ahead Of Earnings, Is It 24% Undervalued?

    Simply Wall St·08/25/2026 21:22:11
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    AutoZone (AZO) has drawn fresh attention after its stock gained 1.74% on a weak market day, as investors focus on the company’s upcoming fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings and related conference call.

    See our latest analysis for AutoZone.

    That 1.74% one day share price gain comes after a mixed run for AutoZone, with the 30 day share price return of 1.76% set against a year to date share price decline of 8.91% and a 1 year total shareholder return that declined 27.31%, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 93.44% points to a stronger longer term record as investors weigh upcoming earnings and the existing premium P/E multiple.

    If AutoZone’s latest move has you thinking about where else growth and risk are being repriced, it can be useful to broaden your search through 20 top founder-led companies

    AutoZone now trades only slightly below one intrinsic value estimate, yet at a sizeable discount to analyst targets after a weak year for the stock. Is the market being too cautious, or fairly pricing that premium P/E?

    Most Popular Narrative: 24.2% Undervalued

    On the most followed narrative, AutoZone’s last close of $3,009.44 sits well below an implied fair value of $3,969.38. This frames the upcoming results in valuation terms rather than just short term share price moves.

    AutoZone's focus on improving availability and speed of delivery in the Domestic Commercial business is expected to drive further sales growth, contributing significantly to revenue growth.

    The expansion of Mega-Hub locations, with an aim to open at least 19 more in the next two quarters, will enhance inventory availability and support both retail and Commercial growth, potentially improving sales and operating margins.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to understand why this AutoZone narrative supports a higher fair value? It focuses on compounding revenue, firmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which specific growth path and profitability mix underpin that view? The full narrative unpacks the numbers behind this $3,969.38 estimate.

    Result: Fair Value of $3,969.38 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, AutoZone’s story can change quickly if inflation keeps pressuring ticket sizes, or if tariffs and higher operating costs squeeze the margin assumptions behind that fair value.

    Find out about the key risks to this AutoZone narrative.

    Next Steps

    With both risks and rewards in play for AutoZone, it makes sense to move quickly and weigh the evidence yourself. To see how the positives and concerns compare side by side, review the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond AutoZone?

    If AutoZone has sharpened your focus on opportunities, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St screener to quickly surface other stocks that fit your goals.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.