CITIC Construction Investment: Steady storage IPOs boost the boom in the semiconductor equipment shipping industry

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying, 1) Humanoid Robots: Yu Shu landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the World Robotics Conference WRC was successfully held. The section continues to catalyze, and it is recommended to focus on quality issues. (2) AIDC power generation equipment: Q2 global gas engine orders reached a record high, and I am firmly optimistic that domestic gas engines will go overseas. (3) Construction machinery: Domestic and foreign sales of excavators continued to resonate upward in July, and the sector will usher in quarterly improvements. (4) Semiconductor equipment: Storage IPOs continue to be promoted, and we are optimistic that semiconductor equipment will reach new highs in the second half of the year. (5) Lithium battery equipment: Production schedules reached a record high, a wave of price increases began, and the lithium battery boom continued to be strong.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Humanoid robot: Yu Shu landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the World Robotics Conference WRC was successfully held, and the section continued to catalyze. Yushu's IPO price is 150.80 yuan/share, corresponding to the issuance market value of about 61 billion yuan, exceeding previous expectations, and is expected to drive the valuation reshaping of in-house manufacturers. Domestic chain manufacturers actively promote multi-dimensional capacity building such as “brain”, “cerebellum”, and “body”, and actively explore applications in multiple industrial and commercial scenarios, and the scale of shipments continues to expand; as the level of generalization of robots increases, it is expected that their implementation scenarios will expand further. Physical AI is the next wave of artificial intelligence. Robots are one of the best physical carriers of AI, and the development trend of the industry is clear. The 2026 World Robotics Conference will be held from August 19 to 23 at the Beijing Yizhuang Beiren Yichuang International Convention and Exhibition Center; the subsequent release of Optimus V3 and mass production progress, the launch of new domestic robots, the promotion of IPOs of robotics companies, and application implementation will continue to catalyze the market. It is recommended to focus on quality links.

AIDC power generation equipment: Q2 global gas engine orders reached a record high, and I am firmly optimistic that domestic combustion engines will go overseas. Global gas engine orders in 2026Q2 were about 38 GW, a record high in the single quarter, and the US contributed nearly half; at the same time, prices for long-term combined cycle projects increased significantly, and delivery slots around 2030 are still highly scarce. PJM's price adjustments related to transmission restrictions in the first half of the year increased from 2.1 billion dollars in the same period last year to about 6 billion US dollars, further strengthening the economy of the rear combustion engine. Furthermore, the semi-annual report of Jerry Co., Ltd. revealed that since November 2025, the cumulative number of new orders for gas turbines and ancillary equipment has exceeded 3.1 billion US dollars, and the global gas turbine boom continues.

CITIC Construction Investment's view: Global gas engine orders in Q2 reached a record high. Orders, revenue, profit margins, production capacity, and guidelines from the Big Three simultaneously increased and were collectively upgraded, providing strong visibility for future deliveries. The current boom in global demand for combustion engines coexists with tight delivery slots, and the gap between supply and demand in the industry will continue. Domestic combustion engines are expected to gain overseas market share faster with shorter delivery cycles, higher cost performance, and continuously enhanced product competitiveness. Firmly optimistic about domestic combustion engines going overseas.

Construction machinery: Domestic and foreign sales of excavators continued to resonate upward in July, and the sector will experience quarterly improvements. In July 2026, sales of 19,521 excavators of various types were sold, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. Among them: domestic sales volume was 7,608 units (including 41 electric excavators), up 4.13% year on year; exports were 1,1913 units (including 62 electric excavators), up 21.2% year on year. Overall, domestic and foreign sales have maintained positive growth. Among them, exports are still maintaining a high growth rate of more than 20%, and the growth rate of domestic sales has decelerated a lot. Structurally, the growth rate has declined slightly, and is affected by the relatively high domestic sales base in Q3 last year. Overall, it is still maintaining a good trend, and I am optimistic that domestic and foreign demand will continue to resonate and improve.

Domestic sales of excavators showed a clear backward trend in the peak season this year, because this year's Spring Festival is late compared to last year, and domestic excavators have recovered a high year-on-year positive growth since March, and it is expected to continue to grow in the future. Exports maintained strong performance, undisturbed by the international situation, changes in tariffs, interest rate hikes, etc., and China's construction machinery growth trend is still high. The domestic landscape has improved, and leading companies have begun to raise prices.

Semiconductor equipment: The long-term prospectus was posted online this week. The global boom cycle continues to be confirmed, and attention is being paid to the overseas market process. The SEMI update forecasts that semiconductor equipment will continue to grow over the next 3 years. SEMI expects global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to reach a record high of US$165.9 billion in 2026, +23.2% year over year. The growth momentum is expected to continue until 2028, and total equipment sales are expected to reach a record high of US$229.5 billion, achieving five consecutive years of growth. TSMC raised its 26-year capital expenditure. TSMC expects capital expenditure of 60 billion to 64 billion US dollars for the full year of 2026. The previous estimate was 52 billion to 56 billion US dollars, an increase of 8 billion US dollars, or about 15%.

ASML's overall performance comprehensively surpassed the market and the company's early guidance. The total quarterly net sales volume was 9.326 billion euros, +21% year over month, significantly exceeding the company's previous guidance of 84-9 billion euros and the market's consensus forecast of 8.85 billion euros. The annual performance target was raised for the second time in the year. The AI computing power+storage recovery both drove the boom in the industry, and the profit structure continued to be optimized. The world's semiconductor equipment components are experiencing a wave of price increases throughout the entire chain, which is rare in history. The pricing power in the semiconductor industry chain is shifting structurally from chip terminals to equipment and components. Parts companies are small in scale and account for a high proportion of fixed costs, and price increases directly translate into profits; at the same time, the production line expansion cycle lasts 12-18 months, and supply elasticity is the worst. Pay attention to domestic substitution demands and price increase logic brought about by extended delivery times from overseas suppliers such as valve pipelines, ceramic parts, RF power supplies, and GAS BOX.

Lithium battery equipment: Production schedules reached a record high, a wave of price increases began, and the lithium battery boom continued to be strong.

First, on the production schedule and price side, the demand boom continued to be strong: in August, the total lithium battery production schedule was about 304 GWh, +7.4% month-on-month, and energy storage cell production was scheduled to be 125 GWh, a net increase of about 10 GWh over the previous month. The concentrated preparation of overseas large storage projects drove energy storage up the first growth engine; leading 314Ah energy storage cell prices increased by 2.17%, and a wave of battery price increases began. The superimposed battery consumption tax began in September, and the signal for both volume and price increases in the second half of the year were clear.

Second, on the solid state industrialization side, an engineering inflection point was established: the Yibin all-solid pilot line in the Ningde era was officially launched in August, the energy density of the first batch of sulfide samples exceeded 500 Wh/kg, cycle life exceeded 1,000 times, and small-batch loading verification was planned in 2027; BYD Chongqing Bishan 20GWh mass production line started in the third quarter, and the world's first 10,000-ton high-purity lithium sulfide production line began in Anqing. The cost of sulfide electrolytes has been reduced by more than 35%, and the full solid state technology has been reduced by more than 35%. From viable to economically viable.

Third, on the equipment implementation side, the incremental value was evident: in the first half of the year, there were more than 40 public investment projects for solid-state batteries and core materials, and the total planned investment exceeded 50 billion yuan. The peak construction of pilot lines and mass production lines drove demand for new process equipment such as dry electrodes, isostatic pressure, and lamination. The value of a single GWH equipment was about 3-5 times that of liquid production lines, and the equipment side was definitely the first to benefit. Currently, the sector is in a triple resonance window with high production schedules, solid state loading verification and equipment implementation, and continues to be optimistic about the configuration value of the lithium battery equipment and solid state battery sector.

Risk Alerts

(1) Risk of domestic macroeconomic fluctuations: Machinery is a typical midstream capital goods industry. It is closely related to macroeconomic fluctuations. If there is a major shift in domestic macroeconomic policies, it will inevitably affect the overall demand of the machinery industry.

(2) Risk of fluctuations in overseas markets: It is impossible for Chinese companies to go overseas smoothly. The future journey is bound to cause all kinds of friction. Whether it is a phased episode or the formation of a new trend requires careful judgment.

(3) The risk that downstream production expansion falls short of expectations: If the downstream industry's expansion falls short of expectations, the corresponding demand for equipment will decline, which will adversely affect the orders, performance, etc. of companies in the industry.