US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes are falling sharply, Nvidia (NVDA.US) earnings report, global central bank meetings are coming this week, and Bezent will announce the “toughest sanctions” against Iraq tonight

Pre-market market trends

1. On August 24 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.09%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.14%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.48%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.02%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.05%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.10%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.11%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 1.91% to $85.40 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.53% to $91.25 per barrel.

Market news

Nvidia (NVDA.US) earnings report hits Jackson Hole! This week, the market faced multiple tests of AI beliefs, the inflation mystery, and financial “raids” resonated. After a week of turbulence surrounding retail performance, rising bond yields, and unexpected intervention by the Ministry of Finance, investors will face another five trading days of intense events this week. Trump plans to announce economic countermeasures against Iran; AI giant Nvidia will release financial reports to put an end to the tech giant's quarterly reporting period; key inflation data will also be released to guide the Fed's next interest rate decision. Additionally, economists and central bank officials will gather at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

Tonight at 2 o'clock, America's “toughest sanctions” against Iraq will arrive. US Treasury Secretary Bezent will hold a press conference at 02:00 Beijing time on the 25th. It was previously predicted that “the harshest sanctions in history” will be imposed on Iran. Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodity analyst Vivek Dhar said that it is currently unclear whether the US policy of isolating Iran through the economy will work. If US measures work as expected, Iran's ability to respond by increasing violence will be a growing risk for the energy market to consider.

Besant can use nearly $1 trillion of Treasury's general account to fund bond repurchases. According to two senior US Treasury officials, the US Treasury can use funds in its General Account (TGA) to support the purchase of government bonds. Besant has now increased the balance size of the TGA to around $950 billion. Last week, the Ministry of Finance unexpectedly doubled the size of bond repurchases, but the effect of suppressing treasury yields was short-lived due to market doubts about Bezent's actual financial capacity.

The weakening of the US dollar compounded policy uncertainty, and the price of gold rose to a three-month high. Spot gold is currently trading around 4,645 US dollars/ounce on Monday. Earlier, it hit 4,660 US dollars/ounce, the highest level since mid-May. The price of gold rose by more than 5% last week. The US dollar weakened due to the US Treasury's long-term bond repurchase program, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Additionally, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International said earlier that the funds he manages have doubled their gold holdings and are betting on the Fed's credit crisis and the decline in the dollar's safe-haven position.

The resumption of production in the Middle East was slower than expected, and Morgan Stanley raised its oil outlook sharply. Morgan Stanley raised the Brent crude oil price forecast for the next several quarters in a research report. Mainly because the pace of recovery in the Middle East supply was slower than expected, the crude oil market continued to be in short supply in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. The bank raised Brent's price forecast for the third quarter of 2026 to $90 per barrel, further raised it to $100 in the fourth quarter, and raised the forecast for the first quarter and the second quarter of 2027 to $95 and $90, respectively.

SoftBank plans to issue 1 trillion yen retail bonds in Japan. SoftBank Group plans to issue a record scale of 1 trillion yen (about 6.3 billion US dollars) of retail bonds. The group is raising capital to meet its investment commitments in OpenAI. This bond issue will be the third time this year that SoftBank has issued bonds to retail investors. Previously, the company raised 418 billion yen in April and another 260 billion yen in June.

Bitcoin was soaring, and the net weekly inflow of $1.92 billion in spot ETFs hit a 10-month high. Last week, as the price of Bitcoin soared, spot Bitcoin ETFs ushered in the strongest weekly inflow in 10 months. According to the data, the net inflow of 13 funds listed in the US was 1.92 billion US dollars, the highest since the beginning of October last year. This wave of capital inflows comes at a time when Bitcoin rose about 23% last week, the biggest weekly increase in more than three years. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading around $78,000.

Individual stock news

The management of BABA.US (BABA.US) took steps to increase their holdings, and Choi Chung-sun and Wu Yongming increased their holdings of Ali shares by HK$80 million and HK$40 million respectively. According to the latest information from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, after Alibaba announced the HK$80 billion IPO plan, Group Chairman Choi Chung-sun and CEO Wu Yongming took steps to increase their holdings of Alibaba shares by a total of about HK$120 million, casting confidence in the company's AI strategy. The day before, Alibaba announced a HK$80 billion IPO, and all proceeds will be invested in full-stack AI capabilities and AI infrastructure construction.

Big drop before the market! Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US) plans to raise an additional US$600 million in financing. On Monday, in pre-market trading of US stocks, the stock price of Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), a major bullish stock in the US stock market, dived sharply and plummeted by more than 14% at one point. According to the news, Applied Optoelectronics plans to raise 600 million US dollars through additional stock issuance. Investors are worried that their shares will be further diluted. In particular, Applied Optoelectronics has raised funds through similar financing instruments several times this year. As of the close of trading last Friday, the cumulative increase in Applied Optoelectronics's stock price during the year was over 258%.

A thousand changes of hands a month! “White House stock god” Trump's June position adjustment list revealed: frequent trading of Palantir (PLTR.US) and huge position adjustments to VIG. According to disclosure documents, US President Trump carried out more than 1,000 securities transactions in June, including massive purchases of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B.US), Visa (V.US), Mastercard (MA.US), Palantir, and CTAS.US (CTAS.US). The total value of these transactions ranged from $78.1 million to $263.1 million. The declaration file shows only one range for each transaction, rather than an exact number. The biggest deal took place on June 22, when Trump sold the $5 million to $25 million Pioneer Dividend Value-Added Index Fund ETF (VIG).

According to the news, Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) may increase DRAM production faster than expected in the second half of the year. According to reports, although demand for AI-driven memory has exacerbated the shortage of DRAM supply, Samsung Electronics' production growth rate in the second half of this year is expected to fall short of market expectations. This is mainly because Samsung Electronics is prioritizing the transition from the 10nm fifth generation (1b) process to the 10nm sixth generation (1c) process, focusing more on improving yield rather than increasing production.

The two Wall Street bosses changed positions at the same time! Clearance Broadcom (AVGO.US) teamed up with Heavy Duty Alphabet (GOOGL.US) to release an important signal for the next phase of AI. The two top Wall Street investors invariably made the same move — Stanley Druckenmiller and Dan Loeb both cleared Broadcom and instead took heavy stock of Alphabet. This position adjustment reflects the shift in AI investment logic in their eyes: from a chip supplier that “sells shovels” to an AI platform company with a complete closed loop ecosystem.

Pinduoduo (PDD.US) rose more than 5% before the market, and adjusted net profit for Q2 exceeded expectations. According to Pinduoduo's latest results, revenue for the second quarter was 112.358 billion yuan, up about 8% year on year; net profit attributable to common shareholders under non-GAAP (non-GAAP) was about 28.5 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 28.023 billion yuan. The second-quarter adjusted revenue per ADS was 19.33 yuan, and the market expected to be 18.51 yuan.

Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) had Q2 revenue of 19.74 billion yuan, and a gross profit margin of 20.7% exceeded expectations. The total revenue of Xiaopeng Q2 was RMB 19.74 billion, up 8% year on year and 51.5% month on month. The gross margin was 20.7%, higher than the estimate of 19.2%. However, the net loss increased from 480 million yuan in the same period last year to 1.34 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 1.8 times over the previous year. For the third quarter, the company expects total revenue between RMB 21.7 billion and RMB 23.4 billion, and vehicle deliveries between 115,000 and 121,000 vehicles.

Key economic data and event forecasts

The next day at 02:00 Beijing time: US Treasury Secretary Bezent held a press conference on specific actions to increase economic sanctions against Iran.

Performance Forecast

Tuesday Morning: Graffiti Intelligence (TUYA.US)

Tuesday pre-market: Bank of Montreal (BMO.US), Vipshop (VIPS.US), Noah Holdings (NOAH.US), Ehang Intelligence (EH.US), Tuniu (TOUR.US)