Akeso (SEHK:9926) Could Be 47% Undervalued As China Approves Ivonescimab Use

Akeso (SEHK:9926) is back in focus after China’s National Medical Products Administration approved ivonescimab plus chemotherapy as a first-line treatment for advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer.

See our latest analysis for Akeso.

Despite the positive ivonescimab news, Akeso’s share price has come under pressure, with the stock down 12.54% over the past week and 21.18% year to date. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return of 185.76% and 5 year total shareholder return of 123.81% show how strong longer term holders have fared.

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Akeso has just secured a landmark approval, yet the share price has pulled back sharply. Is this recent weakness an early opportunity to build a position, or a signal to wait for clearer value before committing more capital?

Most Popular Narrative: 47% Undervalued

Akeso’s most followed valuation narrative places fair value at around HK$167.82 compared with the last close of HK$89.30. That gap reflects very optimistic assumptions about how the current oncology portfolio, including ivonescimab, could scale over time.

The analysts have a consensus price target of HK$167.82 for Akeso based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of HK$227.06, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just HK$129.63.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this narrative pushes Akeso’s fair value so far above today’s price? Revenue ramps, margin shifts and a punchy profit multiple are all in play. Curious which assumptions have the biggest impact on that HK$167.82 figure? The full narrative breaks down how those moving parts link back to the current oncology pipeline.

Result: Fair Value of HK$167.82 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Akeso still carries clear risks, including ongoing operating and EBITDA losses and heavy reliance on ivonescimab and cadonilimab to support future oncology revenue.

Find out about the key risks to this Akeso narrative.

Another View On Akeso’s Valuation

The earlier narrative leans heavily on analyst targets and discounted cash flow style thinking, which suggests Akeso is undervalued versus HK$167.82 fair value. The market is also putting a rich price on current sales, with a P/S of 23.1x compared with 11.6x for Hong Kong biotechs and a fair ratio of 14.4x. That gap points to higher valuation risk if execution stumbles. The key question is whether you think Akeso has earned that premium yet.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

The mix of optimism and caution around Akeso today makes this a good moment to review the numbers yourself and decide what feels justified. To see which positive factors others are focused on, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Akeso?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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