Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs pulled in $486.85 million across the first two sessions of the week, needing just $513 million more over three days to cross $1 billion for the first time since January.
Monday brought $297.56 million in inflows and Tuesday added $189.30 million, fully recovering last week’s $389.71 million outflow and leaving a $97.14 million surplus.
BlackRock’s IBIT (NASDAQ:IBIT) dominated Tuesday’s session with $143.57 million, capturing nearly 76% of total inflows according to SoSoValue.
Hitting $1 billion this week requires roughly $171 million per day over the remaining three sessions.
CryptoQuant posted on X that Bitcoin’s spot demand is about to turn positive for the first time since February.
Historically, that signal has produced an 18.1% median gain over the following 60 days with a 78% win rate. At current depressed valuations, that win rate climbs to 87%.
CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility has fallen to 42% annualized against 18% for the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), the narrowest gap on record.
B2C2 global head of trading Edmond Goh attributed the compression to market maturation, pointing to more institutional participants, tighter risk models, and high-frequency traders from traditional finance all pushing crypto spreads closer to equity market norms.
Meanwhile, Monarq Asset Management managing partner Shiliang Tang told CoinDesk the setup is a tug-of-war with no winner.
Corporate treasury selling from Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) keeps a ceiling on rallies, while flushed leverage and long-term holder accumulation blocks meaningful downside.
Moreover, NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro put it plainly in a research report: short-horizon traders have rotated into AI equities, prediction markets, and leveraged equity derivatives chasing 5x to 10x payoffs that Bitcoin is not offering right now.
BTC slips to $64,457 Wednesday, pressing directly into the descending trendline from May 31st that converges with the 100-day EMA at $66,283.
The 20-day and 50-day EMAs cluster flat right at spot price with no directional edge.
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