Posti Group Oyj Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Posti Group Oyj (HEL:POSTI) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to €12.12 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €362m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 38% to hit €0.06 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Posti Group Oyj's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €1.46b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 39% to €0.99. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.02 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

View our latest analysis for Posti Group Oyj

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 29% to €13.07, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Posti Group Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €13.50 and the most bearish at €12.70 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2026. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 2.4% annually. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.4% per year. Not only are Posti Group Oyj's revenues expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Posti Group Oyj analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Posti Group Oyj that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.