AI’s fingerprints are all over investors’ portfolios, even for those who think they’ve diversified away from it.
That’s the warning from Apollo Global Management’s (NYSE:APO)Chief Economist Torsten Slok, who argues that “a portfolio can appear diversified across sectors and asset classes and still be exposed to the same underlying factor: AI.”
The numbers back him up. Hyperscalers made up just 2.7% of the U.S. investment-grade index in July 2025. Today that share sits at 4.8%, and Apollo estimates it could approach 10% by 2030 as Big Tech borrows aggressively to fund data centers and chips.
Historically, tech, utilities and real estate moved on different fundamentals, and investment-grade credit, high yield and equities often zigged and zagged separately during stress.
Now, Slok says, AI is increasingly the thread tying it together — meaning a mix of stocks, bonds and sectors that looks diversified on paper can actually be one big bet on the same theme.
Apollo’s own research puts it bluntly: “Apparent diversification across issuers and sectors increasingly [masks] a single macro bet on AI,” which is why the firm is steering clients toward exposures it considers structurally insulated from the AI buildout.
Slok names three hideouts:
European private credit. Returns here are tied to European corporate cash flows and regional credit cycles — not U.S. hyperscaler capex or Nvidia’s order book.
Sports-related financing. Team and league-linked debt is backed by media rights, ticket sales and franchise economics, cash flows that have nothing to do with GPU demand.
Hybrid credit. Structures blending debt and equity-like features whose performance hinges on deal-specific terms rather than the AI cycle.
Slok’s pitch is that as AI issuance swells toward roughly half of net new investment-grade supply, real diversification means actively seeking out return drivers uncorrelated with the AI trade rather than just spreading capital across more tickers.
The read-through points toward alternative managers positioned to sell exactly this kind of product.
Apollo Global Management, Blackstone (NYSE:BX), Ares Management (NYSE:ARES) and KKR (NYSE:KKR) have all been expanding private credit and sports-financing platforms, positioning themselves as the go-to shops for investors looking to dial down AI concentration risk without dialing down returns.
The bigger question for markets: if everyone starts chasing the same “non-AI” trade at once, does that just become the next crowded bet?
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