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    Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) Lifts Dividend As Earnings Narrative Still Points To Value

    Simply Wall St·08/18/2026 09:31:19
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    Telstra Group earnings and dividend move come into focus

    Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) has drawn attention after reporting full year 2026 results that showed slightly lower sales and revenue, higher net income, and a higher dividend payout compared with the prior year.

    See our latest analysis for Telstra Group.

    Despite the stronger full year earnings and higher dividend, Telstra Group’s share price has been under pressure, with the stock down 5.95% on a 1 month share price return basis and 13.66% over 3 months. The 5 year total shareholder return of 49.22% points to a much more constructive longer term picture.

    If Telstra’s recent move has you reassessing your watchlist, this can be a useful moment to look at other infrastructure focused plays through our 39 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

    Telstra Group now offers higher earnings and a richer dividend, yet the share price has pulled back in recent months. Some investors may see this as a chance to buy on weakness, while others may view it as a signal to wait for an even cheaper entry before stepping in.

    Most Popular Narrative: 6.4% Undervalued

    Telstra Group’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of A$5.06 per share, compared with the latest close at A$4.74, which implies modest undervaluation driven by long term earnings and cash flow assumptions rather than near term sentiment.

    Strategic focus on cost discipline, digital transformation, and AI-driven automation (including major staff reorganization, migration to a new digital stack, and rollout of AI initiatives) point to further operating leverage and margin improvement as automation scales and legacy cost structures are reduced, potentially supporting higher net margins and earnings. (Impacts: Net margins, EBITDA, earnings growth)

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what sits behind that A$5.06 fair value for Telstra Group? The narrative leans heavily on gradual revenue growth, firmer margins, and a richer earnings base years from now, all filtered through a single discount rate and a future profit multiple that assumes investors keep paying up for that profile.

    Result: Fair Value of A$5.06 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, Telstra Group still faces pressure from shrinking high margin fixed revenues and rising competition. These factors could weigh on its future growth and margin ambitions.

    Find out about the key risks to this Telstra Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    With Telstra Group showing both appealing and concerning signals, it helps to move quickly and test the story against your own expectations. To weigh the upside against the downside in a structured way, start by checking the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Telstra Group?

    If Telstra Group is already on your radar, do not stop there. The market keeps moving and fresh ideas often appear where investors look the least.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.