Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures were mixed heading into Friday morning as Wall Street digested an impending batch of retail and consumer data against a backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bullish for the Aug. 14 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?” contract currently reflects a 57% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing domestic economic indicators against intense geopolitical frictions and yield pressures:

• Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a mixed open. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.01%, and Dow Jones futures advanced 0.06%. Conversely, Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.15% and Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.08%.
• Geopolitical Escalation: The U.S. announced it could maintain its naval blockade of Iran “indefinitely,” with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth noting the military’s capability to sustain this presence, according to Reuters. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned of unprecedented economic isolation measures coming next week. In addition, two vessels from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday evening.
• Energy Prices: Amid the turmoil, Brent crude futures traded slightly higher at $87.17 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $81.39 a barrel.
• Economic Data: Investors await July’s retail sales data at 8:30 a.m. ET. This will be followed by June’s manufacturing and trade inventories and August’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Rising Treasury yields remain a significant point of concern for equities. According to Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist for LPL Financial, when the 10-year Treasury yield rises in a sustained move above the 4.30% range, its correlation with the S&P 500 flips negative, acting as a valuation and liquidity constraint.

With the 10-year yield currently near 4.69%, stocks are in a near-term negative-correlation regime. However, Buchbinder expects yields will eventually ease as markets gain more clarity on oil flows and production in the Persian Gulf, which could provide support for equities.

Meanwhile, global oil supply is noticeably tightening. The International Energy Agency forecasted that global oil supply would fall by 4.3 million barrels per day—or around 4%—this year.

How the Previous Bet Played Out: The Aug. 13 Polymarket contract resolved “Up”. The contract recorded $59,583 in total trading volume.

On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. The SPY was up 0.70% to $777.88, while the QQQ advanced by 1.16% to $732.07. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.14% higher at $537.91 on Thursday.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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