Cui Dongshu: In July, retail sales of 1.461 million passenger cars fell 20.9% year on year, and total volume was under pressure, weakening month-on-month, and structural differentiation intensified

According to the Zhitong Finance App, Cui Dongshu published an article stating that in July 2026, the national passenger car market retailed 1.461 million vehicles, down 20.9% year on year and 8.8% month on month; since this year, 10.161 million vehicles have been sold, down 20.3% year on year. In July 2026, the domestic passenger car market showed an operating trend of “continuous total pressure, month-on-month weakening, and extreme structural differentiation”. The downturn in the off-season was highlighted, and the structural adjustment of the industry was further deepened.

The weakening of the car market in July 2026 was due to the resonance of multiple factors such as a rebound in oil prices, weakening macroeconomic conditions, seasonal off-season, early demand overdrafts, and policy changes. The geographical conflict caused disturbances in navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, driving international oil prices to fluctuate upward. Domestic gasoline prices rose by a total of 1,575 yuan/ton in 2026, drastically increasing vehicle costs. Consumer demand for fuel passenger vehicles has shrunk sharply, but the impact on commercial vehicles is minimal. Meanwhile, in July, CPI and PPI declined month-on-month, and the PMI boom declined. Residents' income and consumption expectations were cautious, their willingness to spend large amounts of durable goods was sluggish, and travel consumption continued to weaken, dragging down demand for terminals in the car market. Combined with the low heat season in July, which suppressed offline customer traffic and the June half-year impulse overdrafted market demand ahead of schedule, terminal orders and passenger traffic declined simultaneously.

1. The automobile market is generally stable in 2026

In July 2026, the total sales volume of automobiles was 2.59 million units, an increase of 1% over the previous year. From January to July 2026, the total sales volume of automobiles was 17.57 million units, a cumulative decrease of 3%. In 2026, the truck and bus market was strong, and the passenger car market performance was slightly weak. Coupled with strong exports and weak domestic markets, the overall sales trend of manufacturers was relatively stable in the end.

In 2026, the performance of the Automobile Group was drastically divided, and companies such as BYD quickly recovered and rose to number one. Companies such as Geely and Chery have generally maintained a strong trend.

2. Export as a share of total sales

China's automobile exports have exploded in recent years, reaching 40% of total exports in July 2026, a significant increase from 21% in 2025, making exports an important component supporting the growth of Chinese automobiles.

3. The performance of major car groups is drastically divided

Compared with the 2021 chart above, some car companies performed strongly in 2022, and the growth rate of the industry was seriously divided. The epidemic in early 2022 put a lot of pressure on traditional car companies. In particular, the impact of new energy was compounded by the impact of the epidemic. The performance of large state-owned groups was divided, and GAC and Chery performed well. Among them, Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors performed well. The performance of various companies in the North, such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC, is under pressure.

In early 2023, new energy sources drove the trend of the car market to diverge. The top three central enterprises are generally divided, and some state-owned enterprises are left behind. New energy companies such as BYD have performed very well; Chery and Tesla have performed relatively well this year. The performance of second-tier car companies is divided. Due to the continuous loss pressure of new and old kinetic energy conversion and new energy vehicles, the differentiation of own-brand SMEs is seriously sluggish.

The Auto Group's lineup pattern changed completely in 2024, and the price reduction of new BYD products increased. Due to the high demand for passenger car sales and overseas contributions, Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performed well, and SAIC Motor is still in a sharp decline. The growth rates of new energy vehicles at BYD and Tesla are diverging.

The pattern of manufacturers in the automobile market has changed dramatically, and the industry is showing sharp divisions in growth. Private enterprises starting in 2025 replaced state-owned enterprises as the main players in the industry, and the growth rates of Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall remained at a high level.

Leading sales in 2026 is the focus of efforts of companies in various countries. Despite the severe downturn in the market, SAIC Motor, Geely, Chery, BAIC, etc. performed well in January-July this year, and their growth rate improved. Great Wall, Tesla, etc. performed well overall.

In 2026, the pattern of automobile manufacturers was relatively stable, and their autonomous status increased dramatically. The overall sales volume of manufacturers was good in July, but sluggish retail sales in the market dragged down the performance of passenger car manufacturers. Some manufacturers such as BYD showed a strong month-on-month trend compared to June, and Chery and others strengthened year-on-year, while some manufacturers such as Tesla had good sales in July, and Changan and others were still making strong year-on-year adjustments.

4. Production and sales trends of passenger car companies in the narrow sense

In July 2026, the total sales volume of passenger cars in the narrow sense was 2.25 million units, down 0.1% year on year; from January to July 2026, total sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense were 14.8 million units, down 5% year on year. In recent years, technological innovation in new energy vehicles and the competitiveness of new products have continued to grow, and the launch of new fuel vehicles has been weak. New energy vehicles at the beginning of 2026 are in an adjustment period. Dealers' confidence is insufficient, and high oil prices are holding down the growth rate.

In 2026, passenger car autonomous vehicle companies will take the overall lead. In July, the main car companies were generally weak, and their autonomy was strong. Joint venture car companies showed a weak trend in July due to high fuel prices. BYD led the way, Chery ranked 2nd, and Geely held the top 3 in July, and the scale of the top 3 is getting closer. Joint ventures such as FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-Volkswagen are underperforming fans.

The main passenger car manufacturers rapidly divided. Export-oriented companies and NEV manufacturers showed strong performance. Joint venture performance differentiation was particularly obvious, and Toyota was stronger.

5. Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle companies

In July 2026, NEV manufacturers sold a total of 1.45 million units, up 22% year on year; from January to July 2026, NEV manufacturers sold a total of 8.24 million units, up 8% year on year. At the beginning of 2026, scrapping and renewal subsidies were under high pressure, oil prices skyrocketed, consumption was sluggish, and demand for new energy vehicles was weak. The domestic trend of new energy in 2026 faced strong pressure from low demand.

In 2026, BYD remained number one, but mixed growth pressure was strong. New energy sources such as Chery and Zero Run are growing strongly.

6. Production and sales trends of traditional power passenger car companies

In 2025, sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of fuel were 14.22 million units, down 5% year on year, and 6.56 million units fell 17% from January to July 2026. As oil prices rise, the market trend is still weak in 2026.

Due to export support, the overall performance of fuel vehicles was divided in 2026, and autonomous performance was strong, and the main joint venture car companies rapidly weakened in the short term.

7. Production and marketing classification trends of bus companies

Total bus sales for the full year of 2025 were 920,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 15%; total bus sales from January to July 2026 were 480,000 units, down 5% year on year, and the driving effect of exports and new energy logistics vehicles was average.

After sprinting at the end of 2025, the bus trend gradually strengthened in 2026. SAIC-GM-Wuling performed very well. Leading manufacturers such as SAIC Maxus have generally had strong sales in recent months. Market demand for logistics light buses and WeChat has fluctuated greatly, and exports have contributed greatly. Commercial vehicle trends for Jiangling Motors and SAIC Chase were good in 2026. Logistics vehicle companies such as Mitsubishi, Chase, and Jiangling rebounded significantly in July.

8. Production and marketing classification trends of truck companies

In 2025, truck sales were 3.72 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%; from January to July 2026, truck sales were 2.29 million units, up 8% year on year, forming a trend of differentiation between consumption and production, a sharp decline in consumption and strong production growth.

Major truck manufacturers in 2026 were clearly divided. Leading truck manufacturers performed well. Car companies such as Foton, Sinotruk, FAW, Great Wall, and Jiangling surged compared to July last year.

The effects of commercial vehicle subsidies are outstanding. Heavy trucks have skyrocketed in 2026, pure electric heavy trucks have performed very well, FAW, Shaanxi Automobile, and Sinotruk are growing strongly, and the industry pattern is relatively stable.