3 Reasons ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) Looks Fairly Valued Following Its 2026 Guidance Lift

ASML Holding (ENXTAM:ASML) raised its 2026 sales guidance after reporting extremely strong AI related tool orders. Key mirror supplier Zeiss said it can support this growth through 2040, easing supply chain concerns.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

ASML Holding’s share price has had strong momentum this year, with a 63.18% year to date share price return and a 151.97% total shareholder return over the past year as AI related orders and supply chain visibility improved.

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After such a sharp run in ASML Holding, some investors will wonder whether to accept today’s price or wait for a calmer entry. The next step is to see what the current valuation actually implies.

Price to earnings of 58.1x, is it justified?

ASML Holding currently trades on a P/E of 58.1x, which sits above both its own fair P/E estimate and the wider European semiconductor industry average.

The P/E ratio tells you how much investors are paying today for each euro of ASML Holding’s earnings. For a company tied to complex semiconductor equipment and services, this often reflects expectations around future order visibility, profitability and the durability of its position with major customers.

ASML is described as good value versus an estimated fair P/E of 61.2x and a peer average of 60.1x, yet expensive compared to the broader European semiconductor industry on 55.1x. That mix suggests the current multiple is rich against the sector but more aligned with companies that share similar earnings profiles. It also sits below the level the market could move towards if the fair ratio view plays out.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for ASML Holding

Result: Price-to-earnings of 58.1x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, ASML Holding still carries risks, including potential shifts in chipmaker capex cycles and any disruption to key customers across Asia and the United States.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Another View on ASML Holding’s Valuation

While the P/E of 58.1x makes ASML Holding look roughly in line with its fair ratio of 61.2x, the SWS DCF model paints a different picture. On that basis, the current share price of €1,609.4 sits above an estimated value of €1,019.01, which points to an overvaluation signal. Which lens do you put more weight on when the story splits like this?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ASML Holding for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 259 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Given the mixed signals on ASML Holding, it can be useful to move quickly and review the numbers yourself so you can build your own conviction. To see the balance of potential upsides and areas of concern in one place, review the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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