CITIC Construction Investment: Domestic robots are expected to stand out from global competition, focus on companies that can reduce costs and innovate

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that Leonardo da Vinci's surgery is expensive. Taking the Shanghai region as an example, the fee for a single operation in 2024 is about 30,000 yuan, which is higher than the latest National Health Insurance Administration fee standard. In the future, with the implementation of the new standards, Da Vinci may face price adjustments. Since 2021, domestic surgical robots have been approved one after another, and the price of terminals is expected to drop sharply in the future. By measuring the hospital's profit model, cost-effective domestic endoscopic surgery robots, and potential humanoid surgery robots can greatly reduce the cost of surgery and increase the penetration rate of robotic surgery. At the same time, innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots are rapidly exploding. Financing for startups is hot, and mergers and acquisitions of leading device companies are frequent. Investors are advised to focus on companies and directions capable of reducing costs and disruptive innovation. At the same time, the agency is also concerned about frequent mergers and acquisitions of leading equipment companies in this field, which may bring additional investment opportunities.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

The rapid development of robots is driving innovation in surgery.

Currently, special surgical robots can be divided into subcategories such as endoscopic robots, orthopedic robots, natural cavity robots (including ERCP robots), neurosurgical robots, and percutaneous puncture robots according to application departments and surgical techniques. Among them, endoscopic robots are the most mature commercialized racetracks, followed by orthopedic, surgeons, and natural cavity tracks. Endoscopic robots are both minimally invasive and precise, and have obvious clinical benefits. Taking the earliest radical surgery for prostate cancer using surgical robots as an example, endoscopic robots significantly reduced the amount of bleeding and the incidence of sequelae, and endoscopic robotic surgery has become the “gold standard”.

Overseas review: consumables upgrade the valuation system, and those who get robots get minimally invasive surgery tracks.

Through a review of Intuitive Surgery (ISRG), the leading global surgical robot business model was summarized into three stages: 1) initially relied on equipment - new models were often the catalyst for stock prices and the most important source of revenue in the early stages, but equipment release was only the starting point for business; 2) Strong Hengqiang - new models pioneered new techniques, increased the volume of stand-alone surgery, and gradually built a positive cycle; 3) Relying on consumables in the later stages - the world's leading intuitive surgery accounted for 60% of consumables revenue in 2025, and the “equipment+consumables+service” business model is excellent and enjoyed Premium, PS valuation from the beginning was about 8 It will gradually increase by about 15 times in 2025.

Market space: Ten times the domestic space in ten years, enough to nurture 100 billion leaders.

According to Intuitive Surgery's announcement, there are currently about 11,000 Leonardo da Vinci robots installed worldwide, with a total of about 500 units installed in China. The penetration rate of the Chinese market is extremely low. After fully considering the reduction in equipment prices and service prices, it is estimated that China's endoscopic robot market is expected to grow tenfold in ten years by 2035, and the market size is expected to reach 33 billion yuan according to factory caliber. Assuming that leading domestic robot companies will have a domestic market share of 30%, overseas revenue share of 50%, and net interest rate of 30% in 2035, then in 2035, the company's revenue is expected to be close to 20 billion yuan, and profit is expected to be close to 6 billion yuan, which is enough to nurture a 100 billion dollar leader.

Industry trends: Upstream and downstream two-wheel drive, disruptive innovation is brewing.

Leonardo da Vinci's localization+new players' entry+the technology industry is driving upstream localization, and the price of surgical robots in China is expected to be drastically reduced. According to the fee standards for surgical robots set by the National Health Insurance Administration and the Hunan Provincial Health Insurance Administration, the fee for robotic surgery will be reduced from 30,000 to 15,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan. We believe that only when the price of robotic surgical equipment is low enough can “hospitals not lose money + patients are willing to do it+want to be covered by medical insurance”, only then can a positive commercial cycle be initiated, and the penetration rate of robotic surgery can be expected to increase dramatically. At the same time, disruptive innovations such as physical intelligence and humanoid robots are empowering the surgical robot industry. They have now entered the animal testing stage, and are expected to be implemented in the future.

Risk factors:

Product commercialization falls short of expected risks; surgical robot development is difficult, and product development registration progress falls short of expectations; risk of increasing market competition leading to falling product prices; risk of medical accidents affecting reputation; risk of changes in industry policies exceeding expectations.

Investment Strategy:

Seize the two main lines of robot cost reduction and continuous innovation, and be optimistic about three types of enterprises: a) enterprises with first-mover advantages and rapid innovation capabilities; b) platform-based companies with the ability to improve consumables; c) device leaders with sufficient capital, strong continuous innovation capabilities, and strong mergers and acquisitions capabilities. The first coverage gave the surgical robotics industry a “better than the market” rating.