Moelis (MC) Affirms Dividend And Buyback Progress, Is The Stock Undervalued?

Moelis earnings, dividend and buyback update

Moelis (MC) has drawn fresh investor interest after reporting second quarter and six month 2026 earnings, affirming a regular cash dividend, and updating progress on its ongoing share repurchase program.

The company reported second quarter net income of US$48.59 million, compared with US$41.54 million a year earlier, and six month net income of US$87.03 million, compared with US$91.81 million. Alongside these results, the Board declared a regular quarterly dividend of US$0.65 per share and confirmed completion of more than 1.19 million share repurchases under its 2026 buyback plan.

See our latest analysis for Moelis.

Moelis shares trade at US$66.27, with the stock down 6.95% on a year to date share price basis but still showing a 67.11% total shareholder return over three years. This combination points to longer term momentum despite recent short term softness.

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Moelis now trades at a discount to both analyst targets and an intrinsic value estimate after a softer year to date share price. Is that a genuine opportunity, or is the market rightly cautious about the outlook for fees and payouts?

Most popular Moelis valuation narrative: 6.7% undervalued

The most followed Moelis narrative points to a fair value of $71 against the last close at $66.27, which frames the current discount as modest rather than extreme.

The accelerated expansion and investment into the private capital advisory (PCA) business, including aggressive hiring of industry-leading talent and focus on secondary and primary capital solutions for sponsors, positions Moelis to capture significant incremental deal flow as global private markets and sponsor-driven transactions proliferate, driving higher revenues and improved earnings visibility. Moelis' continued extension into technology and other innovation-driven sectors enables the firm to capitalize on the increasing frequency of tech disruption across industries, resulting in elevated strategic M&A and advisory opportunities, directly supporting top-line revenue growth and fee pool expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that $71 fair value for Moelis? The narrative leans heavily on compounding advisory fees, firmer margins, and a future earnings profile that assumes more than just a one off rebound.

The fair value in this narrative is built using a 7.8% discount rate and assumes faster revenue growth than the broader US market, paired with profit margins that are lower than earlier models but still supported by higher quality earnings. Analysts in this view also apply a future P/E below the current industry average, which keeps the valuation grounded in more conservative earnings multiples rather than stretching for a premium story.

For investors, the key question is whether Moelis can translate its expansion in private capital advisory and technology focused mandates into the level of revenue growth and margin stability that would justify this fair value, especially given the recent reset in margin assumptions and only a small gap between the share price and the $71 target.

Result: Fair Value of $71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Moelis still faces two key risks. Rising compensation and hiring costs could squeeze margins, and any prolonged slowdown in deal activity could quickly unsettle earnings.

Find out about the key risks to this Moelis narrative.

Another view on Moelis using market multiples

The SWS DCF model points to Moelis trading below an estimated future cash flow value of US$95.53 per share, which supports the earlier fair value narrative. The P/E picture is less straightforward. The current P/E of 21.5x is higher than a peer average of 20.3x, and also higher than a fair ratio estimate of 15.6x. That gap suggests investors need to consider whether the cash flow potential justifies paying more than this fair ratio implies.

For a closer look at what the current P/E and fair ratio indicate for Moelis, including how much room there might be for rerating in either direction, see See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

With Moelis showing a mix of cautious optimism and ongoing questions, this is a good time to review the numbers directly and stress test the story against your own expectations. To weigh those cross currents in a single view, start with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Moelis?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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