Yamato: Alibaba-W (09988) is the first to give a positive rating to China's AI industry

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Yamato released a research report stating that the launch covered the AI industry in China, gave it a positive rating, and placed a special focus on the basic model. As model capabilities increase and intelligence costs decline, the industry is shifting from model benchmarking competition to large-scale model consumption, and commercialization is progressing faster than expected. Smart Spectrum (02513) and MiniMax-W (00100) were first given a “buy” rating, with target prices of HK$1,500 and HK$530 respectively; while Alibaba-W (09988) was the first choice, maintaining the “buy” rating, with a target price of HK$175.

The bank's basic scenario estimates that the total potential market size of AI programming in China will rise to 264 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 266%. The total potential market size of consumer AI will reach 116 billion yuan, a compound annual growth rate of 154%, and the long-term opportunities for enterprises and multi-modal applications are even greater.

Recent evidence shows that both high-end capability and cost efficiency pay off. High-value programming, research, and agent workloads continue to pay for greater intelligence, while cheaper models gain token shares by making AI affordable to a wider range of developers, SMEs, and enterprises. Intelligence spectrum represents the competency route: it has raised prices several times while usage has increased, proving that cutting-edge performance can enjoy a premium. MiniMax represents the efficiency route: competitive intelligence, multi-modal breadth, and lower service costs, positioning it for high-volume adoption. As Qwen 3.8-Max catches up in terms of capabilities, Alibaba is combining the two, and even has a proprietary ASIC, cloud ecosystem, and financial strength.