Green Thumb Industries (CNSX:GTII) Could Be 50% Undervalued After Earnings And Buybacks

Why Green Thumb Industries Earnings and Buybacks Matter Now

Green Thumb Industries (GTII) has put fresh numbers on the table with its second quarter 2026 report. Sales and net income were higher than a year ago, and earnings per share turned positive.

The company also updated investors on its share repurchase program. Green Thumb Industries completed a buyback covering more than 6% of its shares, which reduces the share count and can influence how investors look at valuation.

See our latest analysis for Green Thumb Industries.

Green Thumb Industries shares have moved sharply on the latest results, with a 1-day share price return of 6.0% at CA$10.19. However, the 1-year total shareholder return is down about 10% and the 5-year total shareholder return has fallen more sharply. This suggests that recent momentum contrasts with a weaker longer-term record as investors reassess growth prospects and risks around the business.

If this earnings move has you thinking about where growth stories can go next, it can be useful to widen the search and scan other high potential areas using the 3 top founder-led companies.

After the post earnings jump and a long term record that still sits in the red, the gap between Green Thumb Industries current CA$10.19 price and fair value estimates is wide enough to test.

Most Popular Narrative: 49.8% Undervalued

The most followed valuation narrative places Green Thumb Industries fair value at CA$20.31, almost double the last close at CA$10.19. That gap rests on some very specific growth and profitability assumptions.

Expansion into newly legalized adult-use cannabis markets, particularly Minnesota (expected to launch this fall) and potential near-term legalization in Pennsylvania and Virginia, is set to increase store footprint and sales channels, directly driving top-line revenue growth.

The company's strong brand portfolio and focused efforts to increase consumer engagement and awareness through lifestyle branding, events, and new product launches (such as THC beverages) position Green Thumb to capture shifting consumer preferences towards mainstream cannabis adoption and health/wellness trends, which should support both revenue and pricing power (impacting margins).

Read the complete narrative.

Analysts behind this fair value lean heavily on how revenue might evolve, how margins could reset, and what kind of earnings multiple Green Thumb Industries might one day command. Curious which assumptions carry the most weight and how they stack up against today’s earnings power and share count.

Result: Fair Value of CA$20.31 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still meaningful risks for Green Thumb Industries, including ongoing cannabis price pressure and regulatory uncertainty that could weaken margins and undermine the bullish valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Green Thumb Industries narrative.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play for Green Thumb Industries, the sentiment here is mixed. It makes sense to move quickly and review the data yourself. To see how the positives and concerns balance out, take a closer look at the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond Green Thumb Industries?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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