China Aviation Securities: Domestic reusable rockets mature at an accelerated pace and launch costs decline, space photovoltaics ushered in an inflection point in industrialization

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that the accelerated development of commercial space is driving human space development from single-point missions to large-scale infrastructure construction. Emerging scenarios such as low-orbit satellite networking, continuous cost reduction in reusable rockets, and space computing power are gradually entering the engineering verification stage, making stable, efficient, and low-cost space energy supply a key prerequisite for industrial development. Recently, the Long March 10B carrier rocket was successfully launched and recycling verification has been completed, further strengthening domestic industrial expectations that reusable rockets will mature faster and launch costs will decline. As the most mature in-orbit energy supply method, space photovoltaics is gradually being upgraded from a supporting power supply for traditional spacecraft to a space energy infrastructure, and has become an important emerging industry direction connecting commercial aerospace, photovoltaic manufacturing, and AI computing power.

The main views of China Aviation Securities are as follows:

Space photovoltaics are evolving from dedicated power supplies for spacecraft to space energy infrastructure

Space photovoltaics is an extension of technologies such as photovoltaic cells, space-grade packaging, solar wings, and power management in the space scene. Low-orbit constellation batch networking and space computing power concepts are driving the transformation of space power to standardized and large-scale delivery. Compared to terrestrial photovoltaics, space photovoltaics have many advantages such as stable lighting, local energy supply, and low energy storage dependency, but their large-scale application is still limited by launch costs, space environment, in-orbit reliability, and thermal control capabilities. Overall, the industry is in the early stages of evolution from spacecraft supporting power supplies to space energy infrastructure.

Low-orbit constellations contribute incrementally, highly reliable missions support basic disks, and space computing power opens up long-term flexibility

Projects such as Starlink, Amazon Leo, China Starnet, and the Thousand Sails Constellation continue to advance. The low-orbit constellation forms the most definitive application scenario for space photovoltaics in the near future due to its quantitative scale and continuous network supplementation requirements. The number of medium- and high-orbit communication, navigation, meteorological satellites and deep space exploration missions is relatively limited, but the requirements for longevity, radiation resistance, and system reliability are higher, and are a stable source of demand for high-value space power sources. Space computing power is still in the engineering verification and industrial planning stage, but its single platform power is significantly higher than that of traditional satellites, and is the core variable that determines the long-term space of the industry.

The technical route is not simply an alternative; rather, the mission scenario determines hierarchical penetration

With high efficiency, strong radiation resistance, and long-term flight history, GaAs/III-V multi-junction batteries will still occupy an important position in high-reliability missions such as high-orbit communication, deep space exploration, and space stations; crystalline silicon routes such as PERC.TOPCON and HJT rely on mature supply chains, low cost, and batch manufacturing capabilities, and are expected to be the first to be introduced in cost-sensitive low orbit constellations; perovskite and perovskite/crystalline silicon laminated batteries have the advantages of high efficiency, high specific power, and flexibility, but they still need to complete verification of large area yield, space environment stability and in-orbit stability. We believe that space photovoltaics will evolve along the direction of “building a highly reliable basic plate with GaAs, driving cost reduction and emission, and opening up long-term elasticity with perovskite laminations”, and the replacement process will not happen overnight.

The inflection point of commercialization depends on combined improvements in launch cost, power ratio, and orbital lifetime

Launch costs determine the threshold for entering orbit per unit of power, weight reduction and high specific power determine the scalability of large solar wings, and in-orbit life and reliability determine the economy throughout the life cycle. From 2026 to 2030, batch networking of low-orbit constellations is expected to take the lead in promoting large-scale delivery of space power; from 2030 to 2035, reusable rockets will further reduce costs, crystal silicon routes will complete in-orbit verification, and space computing power is expected to enter the demonstration and early commercialization stage; commercialization of large-scale space energy systems, lunar bases, and ground-based space solar power plants is relatively far away.

Demand from multiple scenarios resonates, and market space is expected to grow rapidly as application scenarios expand

Under a neutral and optimistic scenario, global space PV demand is about 0.18 GW in 2026, corresponding to a value space of about 57.2 billion yuan; global demand is expected to reach 20.90 GW, corresponding value space of about 1.32 trillion yuan; in 2035, global demand may reach 101.81 GW, corresponding value space of about 3.79 trillion yuan. Its domestic demand in China is about 25.60 GW, value space is about 0.95 trillion yuan, and overseas demand is about 76.21 GW, corresponding value space is about 2.84 trillion yuan. It should be emphasized that there is still great uncertainty about the deployment scale, launch costs, and technical progress of space computing power. Long-term estimates are more suitable as scenario space, and short-term orders should still be based mainly on the actual launch rhythm of the low-orbit constellation.

The main investment line focuses on system entry, technology migration and equipment materials

At the investment level, it is recommended to grasp the three main lines of “system entry, route migration, and equipment materials”. In terms of system entry, the focus is on system-level suppliers that have mastered space model certification, flight history, and space power system delivery capabilities; in terms of technology migration, it is necessary to grasp the pace of technological evolution. Short-term GaAs high-reliability routes will still benefit from high-value mission requirements such as high-orbit satellites, deep space exploration, and space stations. It is recommended to focus on the Yunnan Germanium industry, Qianzhao Optoelectronics, San'an Optoelectronics, etc.; The medium-term crystalline silicon cost reduction route is expected to take the lead in achieving penetration in the cost-sensitive low orbit constellation with mature supply chains, low cost and batch manufacturing., Tengo Solar, Jingke Energy, Junda Co., Ltd.; The long-term perovskite and laminated routes have high efficiency, high specific power, and flexibility potential, and are expected to be suitable for space computing power and large-scale space energy systems. It is recommended to focus on GCL Optoelectronics, Electromagnetic Solar Energy, and Longji Green Energy and Trina Solar, which have layered technology. In terms of equipment materials, the spacialization of crystalline silicon and perovskite routes will drive demand for thinning, HJT/Topcon equipment, TCO, silver paste, connectivity and space-grade packaging materials. It is recommended to focus on Maiwei Co., Ltd., Jiejia Weichuang, Jinjing Technology, Polymerization Materials, and Lushan New Materials.