Is Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) reaching an inflection point? Orders and production capacity have broken through, and the general gate control route ushered in the “last half mile”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Wade Bush Securities said that the second-quarter results of quantum computing company Quantum Computing (QUBT.US) and the completion of the acquisition of NHanced Semiconductor may mark an inflection point for this quantum computing company. The bank gave Quantum Computing a “neutral” rating, with a price target of $12.

Wade Bush Securities analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a report to clients, “QUBT delivered and installed a Dirac-3 optimization system to a global consulting firm in June, and management indicated progress in supporting more variables,” “NeuraWave, its photonic energy storage computing platform, reached commercial-ready status in April and received the first order of 5 units from Planck Dynamics under a framework agreement worth over $10 million. In terms of general gated quantum computing (Gate-based), company management described QUBT as “climbing the last half-mile mountain path,” while reiterating that no such machine currently exists. As a result, we continue to view QUBT as the most speculative technology/form among publicly listed quantum computing companies.”

Bryson continued, “Overall, while Fab 2 was a real benefit, and we're not worried about quarterly losses or QUBT's ability to improve the operation of the acquired business, we still need to understand more about the viability of the QUBT technology path before changing our view on the stock.”

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Troy Jensen gave Quantum Computing a “neutral” rating and a target price of $10, and expressed his belief that the company could seize “at least” 5% of the market over time.

Jensen said, “We believe Quantum can capture 5% of the quantum hardware, software, and services market by 2035, which is equivalent to achieving sales of $375 million in 10 years. If we discount the predicted 2035 sales back to the present at a 10% discount rate, the current value of those sales would be $159 million. Based on an estimated total share capital of 225 million shares, this is equivalent to a market capitalization of approximately $2.2 billion.”

General gated quantum computing route

The market's attitude towards Quantum Computing's Universal Gate-based Quantum Computing route (Universal Gate-based Quantum Computing) can be summed up in one sentence: it sees it as a long-term race with “high option value, but far from being verified” — it neither endorses its viability, nor is it willing to fully trust the prototype before it is born. This “cautious optimism” forms the main tone of current market expectations.

When modelling Quantum Computing, Wall Street analysts generally gave its gated routes a very high discount rate (the discount cycle is usually extended to 2035 and beyond). The current valuation premium offered by the market mainly depends on its photonic manufacturing (Fab 2) and vertical integration capabilities established through mergers and acquisitions (such as Luminar Semiconductor, NuCrypt).

Given the remote commercialization of the gated route, almost all of the market's short-term valuation and performance evaluation of QUBT fell on the execution of orders for its proprietary photonic optimization system (Dirac-3) and energy storage computing platform (NeuraWave) (such as contracts from global consulting firms or government projects).

Due to the sharp increase in R&D expenses due to gate control research and development (a sharp increase over the same period in 2026), the capital market is paying close attention to whether its cash on book (such as reserves at the level of 1 billion US dollars) can support it through the long “money-burning period” of general door control systems.

The market regards the company's general-purpose gated quantum computing route as a “long-term high-yield bullish option”: if its photon-based room-temperature gated computing power is the first to achieve a commercial breakthrough, it will lead to disruptive valuation restructuring; however, at this stage, the market is more inclined to view its gate control R&D as a long-term technical reserve and continue to maintain a “neutral” wait-and-see rating, requiring the company to first prove its own hematopoietic ability with dedicated optimization systems and infrastructure orders.