Berenberg Says Unipol 'Fully Set' for MPS Carve-Out Project; Price Target, Forecasts Updated

06:36 AM EDT, 08/11/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg revised its price target and forecasts for Unipol Assicurazioni (UNI.MI), saying the company is "fully set" to implement the proposed Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI), or MPS, carve-out deal following its first-half report. "Unipol Assicurazioni's (Unipol) H1 2026 results, which it presented on 7 August, show that the group is fully prepared for the MPS carve-out project, as evidenced by three KPIs: a) organic capital generation was EUR0.3bn above the dividend requirement, meaning that Unipol could repay the EUR1bn unfunded portion of the planned EUR3.5bn MPS purchase with just two years of surplus capital generation; b) the shareholders at the 30 July EGM approved the EUR2.5bn rights issue with a 94% approval vote, which bodes well for the success of the rights issue when it is eventually launched; and c) group solvency of 259% and insurance solvency of 290% are far above the group's comfort levels, and this provides ample buffers to absorb the MPS deal," according to a Tuesday note. Berenberg added that the Italian financial services holding company's first-half pretax profit of 1.28 billion euros was "well above" the consensus estimate of 1.13 billion euros. Analysts also highlighted the group's "stable at high levels" non-life profitability, with the 91.8% combined ratio in the first half surpassing the market forecast of 91.5%. As such, the research firm raised its net income and adjusted operating EPS projections for 2026 through 2028. Subsequently, the stock's price target increased to 33.5 euros from 32.5 euros, with an unchanged buy rating. "Unipol trades on 12.2x 2028E Bloomberg consensus, which is in line with composite peers, and we estimate that the potential value created by the planned EUR0.7bn MPS carve-out synergies represents pure upside," analysts wrote.