Passenger Link Branch: Retail sales of 1.461 million vehicles in the national passenger car market fell 20.9% year-on-year in July

The Zhitong Finance App learned that in July 2026, the national passenger car market retailed 1.461 million vehicles, down 20.9% year on year and 8.8% month on month; since this year, 10.173 million vehicles have been sold, down 20.3% year on year. In July 2026, the domestic passenger car market showed an operating trend of “continuous total pressure, month-on-month weakening, and extreme structural differentiation”. The downturn in the off-season was highlighted, and the structural adjustment of the industry was further deepened.

The weakening of the car market in July 2026 was due to the resonance of multiple factors such as a rebound in oil prices, weakening macroeconomic conditions, seasonal off-season, early demand overdrafts, and policy changes. The geographical conflict caused disturbances in navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, driving international oil prices to fluctuate upward. Domestic gasoline prices rose by a total of 1,575 yuan/ton in 2026, drastically increasing vehicle costs. Consumer demand for fuel passenger vehicles has shrunk sharply, but the impact on commercial vehicles is minimal. Meanwhile, in July, CPI and PPI declined month-on-month, and the PMI boom declined. Residents' income and consumption expectations were cautious, their willingness to spend large amounts of durable goods was sluggish, and travel consumption continued to weaken, dragging down demand for terminals in the car market. Combined with the low heat season in July, which suppressed offline customer traffic and the June half-year impulse overdrafted market demand ahead of schedule, terminal orders and passenger traffic declined simultaneously. Furthermore, the new national standard for new energy safety was officially implemented, the technical threshold for the industry was raised, and the short-term clearance of low-end models disrupted the market. However, the July Politburo meeting clarified policies to strengthen fiscal policy and increase domestic demand to promote consumption, providing bottom support for the car market. This round of market decline is a phased structural fluctuation, not a trend deterioration in the industry.

Taken together, in July 2026, the passenger car market showed five distinct characteristics: 1. Total volume continued to be pressurized, structural differentiation increased to the extreme. “Deep fuel cooling and strong new energy leadership” became the core main line of the market, and fluctuations in oil prices dominated the rhythm of “oil and electricity substitution”; 2. Fuel vehicles contracted across the board. Among them, pure fuel models almost stalled, and hybrid models were relatively resistant to decline, leading to continuous optimization of the internal structure of fuel vehicles; 3. New energy penetration rates continued to break through new highs, and new supply-side national standard compliant products were launched centrally and iteratively. The price internal volume is completely shifting to value competition; 4. Continued export support The effect is to effectively stabilize the wholesale and production capacity of car companies and ease the weak pressure on domestic retail; 5. Industry inventories continue to be benign, the decline in manufacturer and channel inventories expands simultaneously, overall inventory risks have been fully released, industry operating pressure has been steadily relieved, and overall resilience has been repaired.

In July, retail sales of fuel vehicles fell 41% year on year, with pure fuel vehicles falling 44% and ordinary hybrids falling 4%. Among fuel vehicles, autonomy fell by 46%, mainstream joint ventures fell by 40%, and luxury fell by 28%, all of which were severely impacted by high fuel prices without discrimination.

In July, retail sales of new energy vehicles fell 3.9% year on year, with autonomous vehicles falling 4%, mainstream joint ventures growing 36%, and luxury falling 23%. Domestic retail sales of autonomous economy electric vehicles were greatly affected by the sharp drop in subsidies. Due to strong subsidies for new energy commercial vehicles, the low to medium MPV functions are similar to those of small commercial vehicles, so the low to medium MPV end has declined significantly.

In July, retail sales of 1.04 million vehicles under independent brands were recorded, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a year-on-month decrease of 6%. The domestic retail share of independent brands in the same month was 71.0%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the previous year. Independent brands are generally stable in the new energy market and export market.

In July, mainstream joint venture brands retailed 290,000 vehicles, down 35% year on year and 12% month on month. In July, the retail share of German brands was 12.4%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous year, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 10.9%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous year. The retail share of American brands in the market was 4.2%, down 1.0 percentage point year on year. Low-volume joint ventures are gradually recovering their vitality.

In July, 130,000 luxury cars were retailed, down 27% year on year and 23% month on month. With the reasonable return of the guide price for luxury cars, the retail share of luxury brands was 8.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous year.

Exports: According to Passenger Link data, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 918,000 units in July, up 87.8% year on year and 4.9% month on month, accounting for 41% of passenger car manufacturer sales (37% in the previous month, 21% in the same period in 2025). In July, new energy vehicles accounted for 58.8% of total exports, an increase of 14 percentage points over the same period. In July, exports of independent brands reached 775,000 vehicles, up 87% year on year; joint ventures and luxury brands exported 143,000 vehicles, up 108% year on year.

Production: In July, 2,222,000 passenger cars were produced, down 1.6% year on year and 4.9% month on month. In July, luxury brand production fell 21% year on year and 12% month on month; joint venture brand production fell 35% year on year, down 24% month on month; independent brand production increased 12% year on year, up 0.1% month on month.

Wholesale: In July, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 2.252 million vehicles, down 0.2% year on year and 4.5% month on month; encouraged by the surge in exports, the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale in July was 20.7 percentage points higher than retail sales growth. In July, autonomous car companies wholesale 1.733 million vehicles, up 9% year on year and down 3% month on month. Mainstream joint ventures wholesale 315,000 vehicles, down 30% year on year and 14% month on month. The wholesale volume of luxury cars was 204,000 units, down 5% year on year and 3% month on month.

In July, the overall wholesale pattern of major passenger car manufacturers continued to change. Vehicle companies such as BYD Auto, Chery Auto, SAIC Passenger Car, Zero Sports Auto, Tesla China, NIO Auto, Jihu Auto, and Jiangsu Yueda Kia achieved a year-on-year high growth rate of more than 20%. Car market concentration increased in July, with 5 passenger car manufacturers selling more than 100,000 vehicles in wholesale sales (5 in the previous month and 5 in the same period last year), accounting for 50.3% of the overall market share (47% last month, 46% in the same period). Passenger car manufacturers with a wholesale volume of 5-10 million vehicles accounted for 18.7% (26% in the previous month, 27% in the same period), and passenger car manufacturers with a wholesale volume of 10,000 to 50,000 vehicles accounted for 27.0% (24% last month, 24% in the same period).

Inventory: Due to the manufacturer's extremely cautious production schedule in July, the manufacturer's wholesale production was higher than 30,000 units, while the manufacturer's monthly domestic wholesale was lower than the domestic retail price of 127,000 units. The characteristics of inventory removal are prominent this year. The overall inventory of the passenger car industry fell by 640,000 units in January-July (250,000 units in the same period in 2025, 600,000 units in the same period in 2024, and 180,000 units in the same period in 2023).

New energy: In July, production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.449 million units, up 25.6% year on year and 0.2% month on month. In January-July, the cumulative production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 8.214,000 units, an increase of 7.9% over the previous year.

Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.446 million units in July, up 21.3% year on year and down 2.8% month on month; in January-July, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 8.248 million units, up 7.6% year on year. Wholesale sales of conventional fuel passenger cars reached 810,000 units in July, down 24% year on year and 8% month on month.

In July, the NEV passenger car market retailed 951,000 vehicles, down 3.9% year on year and 5.8% month on month; in January-July, the NEV passenger car market retailed 5.668 million vehicles, down 12.5% year on year. In July, 510,000 conventional fuel passenger cars were retailed, down 41% year on year and 14.2% month on month; among them, ordinary hybrid models fell only 4% year on year and 5% month on month.

In July, NEV manufacturers exported 540,000 vehicles, up 147.8% year on year, up 8.1% month on month; in January-July, NEV manufacturers exported 2.771 million vehicles, up 128.5% year on year, and 379,000 conventional fuel passenger vehicles in July, up 42% year on year and 1% month on month.

1) Wholesale: The wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers was 64.2% in July, up 11 percentage points from July 2025. In July, the penetration rate of own-brand new energy vehicles was 73.6%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 57.1%; and the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand NEVs rose to 17.1%.

In July, wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 958,000 units, up 28.6% year on year, down 2.9% month on month; in July, plug-in sales were 387,000 units in the narrow sense, up 14.6% year on year, down 4.6% month on month; in July, extended range wholesale sales were 100,000 units, down 7.5% year on year, up 6.4% month on month. In the July new energy wholesale structure: pure electric 66.2% (YoY +3.7%, month-on-month -0.1%), narrowly inserted mixing 26.8% (-1.6% YoY, -0.5% month-on-month), and 6.9% incremental (YoY -2.2%, month-on-month +0.6%).

In July, 299,000 B-class electric vehicles were sold, up 35% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, accounting for 31% of pure electric vehicles, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period last year. The A00+A0 economy electric vehicle market is under high pressure. Among them, A00 class wholesale sales volume was 65,000 units, down 50% year on year and 15% month on month, accounting for 7% of pure electric vehicles, down 10.7 percentage points from the same period last year; A0 wholesale sales volume was 311,000 units, accounting for 32% of pure electric vehicles, up 8.9% year on year. ; A-class electric vehicles are 231,000, accounting for 24% of pure electric vehicles, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year; judging from the long-term popularity trend, the growth of economical electric vehicles has the greatest potential. Only the popularity of entry-level electric vehicles can truly drive sustainable growth in the car market.

In July, 18 passenger car wholesale sales exceeded 20,000 units (21 units last month), BYD Yuan UP (63,258 units), BYD Song (61,012 units), Model Y (59,836 units), Geely Xingyuan (55,105 units), Tiggo 7 (34,936 units), Model 3 (33,743 vehicles), Binyue (31,137 vehicles), Zero Sport A10 (28,593 vehicles), BYD Seagull (27,971 vehicles), Fangcheng Baotai (7 vehicles) 27,320 vehicles), Chery JAECOO J5 ( 24,639 vehicles), Qiyuan Q05 (24,512 vehicles), BYD Dolphin (22,910 vehicles), Tiggo 8 (22,309 vehicles), Wuling Bingo (21,378 vehicles), Xiaomi SU7 (21,044 vehicles), MG ZS (21,032 vehicles), and BYD Yuan PLUS (20,180 vehicles). Among them, new energy models occupy an absolute dominant position.

2) Retail sales: The overall retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China in July was 65.1%, up 11.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and 2.1 percentage points from month to month. In domestic retail sales in July, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 83.8%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 30.9%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands only rose to 13.7%. Looking at the monthly domestic retail share of NEVs, in July, the retail share of own-brand NEVs was 64.6%, down 5.3 percentage points year on year; mainstream joint venture brand NEV share was 4.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year on year; the share of new forces was 26.8%, and brands such as Zero Sports Auto and NIO Auto drove the share of new forces to increase 5.4 percentage points year on year.

3) Exports: In July, 540,000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported, up 147.8% year on year and 8.1% month on month. Passenger car exports accounted for 58.8%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the same period last year; of these, pure electric vehicles accounted for 59.5% of new energy exports (65.1% in the same period last year), and A00+A0 class pure electric vehicles, which are the core focus, accounted for 42.2% of pure electric exports (36.6% in the same period last year). As the scale advantage of new energy vehicles in China becomes apparent and the market is expanding, new energy brand products made in China are increasingly going abroad, and their recognition overseas continues to increase. Among them, the narrow interpolation accounted for 35.9% of new energy exports (32.4% in the same period last year) and 4.6% of new energy exports (2.5% in the same period last year). Despite some recent disruptions from external countries, autonomous mixed exports in the narrow sense of the word are growing rapidly in developing countries, and the prospects are promising. Excellent companies in terms of new energy exports in July were: BYD (173,721 vehicles), Chery (82,768 vehicles), Tesla China (66,330 vehicles), Geely (60,584 vehicles), Changan (26,200 vehicles), SAIC Passenger Cars (24,778 vehicles), Zero Sports (17,569 vehicles), SAIC-GM Wuling (13,199 vehicles), and Great Wall Motor (10,162 vehicles). Other car companies also export new energy on a certain scale.

Looking at overseas system construction, some independent brands account for a relatively high share of CKD exports, and their international performance is excellent. Among them, Great Wall Motor's CKD exports account for 44.7%, SAIC-GM-Wuling CKD exports account for 37.2%, Pilot Motor's CKD exports account for 40.0%, and SAIC Motor's CKD exports account for 11.4%.

4) Vehicle companies: The overall trend of new energy passenger car companies was strong in July. BYD Auto's pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive consolidated its leading position in new energy brands; plug-in hybrid performance in the narrow sense represented by BYD Auto, Geely Auto, and Chery continued to be strong. In terms of product launch, with autonomous vehicle companies' implementation of the “multi-line approach” strategy on the new energy route, the market base continued to expand, and the number of manufacturers with monthly wholesale sales of new energy exceeded 10,000 vehicles reached 20 (1 more compared to the previous year, the same period last year), accounting for 93.6% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles (93.5% last month and 91.7% in the same period last year). Among them, BYD (410,612), Geely (156,568), Chery (122,097), Zero Sports (101,267), Tesla China (93,579), SAIC-GM-Wuling (61,526), Changan (57,092), SAIC Motor (56,063), Xiaopeng (38,027), NIO (35,934), Great Wall (34,645) Xiaomi cars (31,267 cars), ideal cars ( 30,468), Dongfeng (24,664), Jihu (23,517), GAC Aian (21,007), Cyrus (20,588), SAIC-GM (12,662), GAC Toyota (12,002), Volkswagen Anhui (10,079).

The corporate brands that have sold more than 20,000 new energy passenger vehicles in China are: BYD Auto (223,461 vehicles), Geely Auto (105,526 units), Zero Sport (83,698 vehicles), Changan Motor (59,907 vehicles), SAIC-GM-Wuling (48,967 vehicles), Hongmeng Zhixing (45,422 vehicles), Chery (39,079 vehicles), NIO (35,842 vehicles), SAIC Motor (31,471 vehicles), Xiaomi (31,7261 vehicles), Xiaomi (31,7261 vehicles) vehicles), Ideal cars (30,468 vehicles), Xiaopeng Motors ( 28,327), Tesla China (27,249), Great Wall (24,483), GAC Aian (24,103), Jihu (23,517), Dongfeng (21,396).

5) New forces: In July, the retail share of the new forces was 26.8%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the previous year. Among the new power models, pure electric sales accounted for 77.6%, a significant increase from 63.7% in the same period; the share of sales in the 10-150,000 class of new power pure electric models increased dramatically. Independent new energy brands from independent traditional car companies performed well as second-generation players, with a share of 17.7%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the previous year. Self-innovating energy brands from large independent groups such as Jikrypton, Yipai Technology, Deep Blue Auto, Extreme Fox, and Rantu performed well.

6) General mixing: In July, 97,000 ordinary hybrid passenger cars were sold, up 31% year on year and down 13% month on month. Among them are FAW-Toyota (34,883), GAC Toyota (24,495), SAIC Passenger Cars (20,572), Geely (5,657), Great Wall (3,284), Dongfeng Honda (3,170), Changan Ford (3,058), and Guangqi Honda (1,058). The hybrid market is relatively strong, and autonomous hybrids such as SAIC passenger cars and Geely have risen to prominence in overseas markets.

National passenger car market outlook for August 2026

In August 2026, the passenger car market as a whole showed an operating trend of “weak total repair and strong structural differentiation”. The 21 working days of production and sales were compounded by high temperatures and the low season, and the terminal market picked up at a steady pace. Multiple macroeconomic and industry factors intertwined to shape the market pattern. Affected by the blockage of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices fluctuated upward in July. Domestic refined oil prices increased by a total of 985 yuan/ton in two rounds, drastically increasing fuel vehicle and vehicle maintenance costs, and continuing to suppress users' desire to buy fuel vehicles. Demand for traditional fuel vehicles continued to weaken. It also became a core external benefit for new energy vehicles that bucked the trend and strengthened, and continued to broaden the growth space for new energy models in domestic and overseas markets.

The latest macroeconomic data shows that domestic consumption and manufacturing are weak, directly limiting the recovery of the car market. In July, CPI rose 0.5% year on year and fell slightly by 0.1% month on month, reflecting insufficient momentum in domestic demand; PPI rose 3.5% year on year and fell 0.7% month on month, and upstream costs were marginally mitigated but transmission was lagging; PMI fell back to 49.2%, and manufacturing sentiment declined, compounded by prudent consumer confidence and strong wait-and-see sentiment on large automobile consumption, leading to weak overall car market growth. The policy side formed strong hedging support. The July Politburo meeting made it clear: give full play to the effectiveness of various inventory policies, plan and introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies in a timely manner, increase countercyclical adjustment efforts, and increase efforts to expand domestic demand and optimize supply. As consumer goods trade-in support policies continue to be optimized and strengthened, automobile consumption support expectations will continue to heat up, which will effectively promote the gradual recovery of the car market from the bottom in the third quarter.

The supply-side threshold continues to rise, and the trend of new energy vehicles becoming larger is obvious. Among the new energy vehicles from January to July 2026, the number of new energy vehicles above 5 meters reached 49, accounting for 56% of the total number of new energy vehicles (38% in 2024 and 36% in 2025), while only 1 model under 4 meters accounted for 1%, compared to 5 models in the same period last year. The supply of economical cars has been drastically reduced.

Overall, in August, the car market was at the bottom of the recovery phase. With the gradual implementation of various policies to stabilize consumption and the gradual improvement of the superposition base, the decline in the passenger car market will gradually narrow, and the industry will officially enter a mature stage of “value-driven and structural optimization”, paving the way for the traditional “gold nine silver ten” market.