The AI computing power chain “weather vane” welcomes the big test: ultra-micro computer (SMCI.US) will be on the list tonight! The options market is betting on 13.4% share price fluctuations, and the bullish sentiment is strong

The Zhitong Finance App learned that AI server manufacturer Ultra Micro Computer (SMCI.US) will release financial results for the fourth quarter of the 2026 fiscal year after the US stock market on Tuesday. This financial report will not only determine the short-term stock price trend of ultra-microcomputers, but will also be an important weather vane for the market to determine whether the AI computing power chain can continue to thrive. Options market pricing shows that the stock price may fluctuate in both directions by about 13.4% after the earnings report is released. Traders are betting on the upside with record bullish options while establishing downside protection at key prices.

The core contradiction in financial reporting: gross profit margin “exploded” vs. revenue “not up to standard”

The initial results revealed by Ultramicrocomputer at the end of July showed a set of apparently contradictory data sets:

Revenue side: Q4 revenue is expected to fall at the low end of the previous guidance range of $11 billion to $12.5 billion. Analysts generally expect Q4 revenue of $11.56 billion, an increase of 101% year over year. In the past five quarters, there were four times when ultra-microcomputer revenue fell short of expectations.

Profit side: The gross margin is expected to be between 15% and 17%, far exceeding the previous guideline of 8.2% to 8.4%. Analysts expect Q4 earnings of $0.96 per share, up 134% year over year. Over the past three months, analysts' earnings per share expectations have been raised 16 times, and the number of revisions has been reduced to zero.

This combination of “low end revenue and double gross margin” points to the same logic: the pattern where AI computing power is in short supply is reshaping the distribution of profits in the industrial chain.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson sorted out the three core drivers: short supply — AI motherboards and computing power hardware continued to be in short supply from June to July; pricing advantage — shortage of hardware supply allowed ultra-micro computers to take control of pricing in the whole machine process; structural optimization — delays in data center projects for some major customers, which indirectly increased the sales share of high-margin products.

Options market: 13.4% fluctuation expected, bullish sentiment dominates

The options market is setting prices for a sharp fluctuation. Ultramicrocomputers closed up more than 1% to $31.46 on Monday. The options chain, which expires on August 14, shows that the cost of a $32 flat cross-option combination (simultaneously buying the bullish and bearish options with the exercise price closest to the current stock price) is about $4.31, which corresponds to the expected fluctuation of about 13.4% before the stock price expires on Friday. Based on Monday's closing price, this fluctuation means that the stock could drop to $27.89 or rise to $36.51.

The concentration of call options is extremely high, indicating that market participants are betting heavily on the upside. The highest number of open positions was the $31 call option (24,299), followed by the $33.5 call option (22,455). The number of open positions for call options in addition to the $40 deep price is as high as 13,188. In intraday trading on Monday, the $35 call option sold more than 8,500 shares, and the $33 call option sold more than 5,800 shares.

In terms of put options, traders have established short-term support protection near the exercise prices of $28 and $30. There are 4,772 open positions with $28 put options, 3,581 put options at $30, and more than 2,000 put options at $29, reflecting that some traders are building protection against possible downside risks.

Wall Street is equally divided over ultra-microcomputers. Of the five analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, only one gave a “buy” rating, two were “neutral,” and two were “sold,” with an average target price of around $34. Mizuho's Vijay Rakesh maintained a “neutral” rating and a target price of $34; Rosenblatt's Kevin Cassidy and Needham's Quinn Bolton gave purchase ratings of $45 and $46, respectively. The 19 analysts at S&P Global have a consensus rating of “hold”, with an average target price of $37.81. The highest target price is $64, and the minimum is $24.

Key Suspense: The Convertible Power of $60 Billion Orders

Ultramicrocomputer Q4 added more than 60 billion US dollars in new orders, and the backlog of orders reached a record high. This figure is more than five times the lower end of the revenue guide.

However, the company warns that some orders may not represent a firm commitment, and there is still a risk of cancellation or delay. As a result, delivery schedules and working capital requirements became the focus — operations in the third quarter consumed $6.6 billion in cash, only $1.3 billion in cash on hand, and an additional $8.8 billion in debt and convertible bonds.

Furthermore, the Board's independent export control review is still ongoing, and management warned that this may affect financial estimates, preliminary results, and data for previous periods.

The bigger background: the “litmus test” of the popularity of the AI computing power chain

The reason why ultra-micro computer's financial report has attracted much attention is because it is not only a test of the company's own performance, but also a “litmus test” for the overall AI computing power chain. As the core OEM of Nvidia servers, its large order growth directly reflects the expansion of computing power demand from leading cloud vendors and AI companies.

Over the past 12 months, ultra-microcomputer shares have fallen by about 30%, lagging behind HPE Technology (+160%) and Dell Technology (+230%) in performance. This financial report will determine whether stock prices can recover steadily — investors will pay close attention to actual revenue, the composition of backlog orders, and shipping schedules.

Ultramicrocomputer's Q4 earnings report is a key test of the profit distribution logic of the AI computing power chain. The guideline of nearly doubling gross margin and the warning that revenue falls at the low end together point to the same signal — in a pattern where AI hardware is in short supply, the pricing power of machine manufacturers is reshaping the profit structure. For investors, this financial report on ultra-microcomputers is not only a watershed moment for testing its own investment value, but also a key weather vane for judging whether the entire AI computing power chain can continue to thrive.