BTC stabilizes 65,000 bull market, Glassnode: Weakness on the chain warns of a transition period

According to Woofun AI, although the Bitcoin price stabilized around $65,000, Glassnode emphasized that the upward trend has not yet been confirmed, and market signals showed a significant divergence.

Looking at the microstructure, since hitting a low of $58,000 in late June, the willingness to buy in the spot market has increased, but overall exchange volume has been sluggish, indicating a lack of large-scale participation. In the derivatives market, targeted transactions are frequent, and the activity of perpetual contract futures buyers exceeds the normal range, but unclosed contracts and financing rates show no signs of overheating, and leverage risk is manageable. In the options market, the reduction in the cost of avoiding downside risks reflects an easing of short-term prudence. These conflicting signals suggest that although the moderate increase in leverage ratios has reduced the risk of chain liquidation, speculative enthusiasm is limited, and market confidence is gradually being restored, the firm optimism required for a bull market has not yet been formed.

Fundamentals present a structural contradiction between a recovery in institutional demand and weak on-chain activity. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, a rise in short-term capital ratios suggests a return of price-sensitive investors. This usually indicates a recovery in interest among retail investors and institutional investors, providing potential support for price increases.

However, overall blockchain activity is still weak, the number of active addresses and revenue from related fees is low, and there has been no significant recovery in basic network usage. More importantly, although Bitcoin's share of total profit has increased, the actual loss amount is still higher than the actual profit amount, indicating that some holders are still selling assets at loss prices, and there is no complete balance between supply and demand within the market.

Bitcoin has come out of its initial recovery phase, but a lack of broad market demand and weak on-chain activity has prevented the establishment of a strong upward cycle. The next few weeks are critical, and we need to see if the liquidity of the spot market and on-chain activity improve. Although it is positive that the price stabilized at $65,000 after falling in late June, Glassnode data confirms that the market is still in transition. Price trends alone are insufficient; a comprehensive assessment of spot market liquidity and on-chain indicators is necessary to confirm whether continuous recovery can be achieved.