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Shen Hao, chief food and beverage analyst at Societe Generale Securities, said that the bottom of the current liquor sector has been basically confirmed, the margin of safety is sufficient, and the direction of marginal improvement is clear. Although inventory removal will take time, the worst phase in the industry is over. Shen Hao pointed out that from three aspects, the current sector is at the bottom of value: one is the valuation level corresponding to the actual performance of wine companies, most of which are at historically low levels; second, cash flow and net assets have safety pads; and third, the appeal of most wine companies' medium- to long-term dividend ratios has increased. “This year's Mid-Autumn Festival season will be a key window for testing fundamentals. If we can spend it smoothly, the inflection point in the liquor sector is expected to gradually be realized.” Shen Hao further pointed out. In terms of market conditions, Shen Hao judged that starting in the third quarter of the second half of the year, along with continuous improvement in macroeconomic data such as CPI and PPI, consumer confidence will pick up, and the signs of marginal recovery in the industry are clear, the sector is expected to usher in the second phase of valuation repair.

Zhitongcaijing·08/11/2026 00:41:07
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Shen Hao, chief food and beverage analyst at Societe Generale Securities, said that the bottom of the current liquor sector has been basically confirmed, the margin of safety is sufficient, and the direction of marginal improvement is clear. Although inventory removal will take time, the worst phase in the industry is over. Shen Hao pointed out that from three aspects, the current sector is at the bottom of value: one is the valuation level corresponding to the actual performance of wine companies, most of which are at historically low levels; second, cash flow and net assets have safety pads; and third, the appeal of most wine companies' medium- to long-term dividend ratios has increased. “This year's Mid-Autumn Festival season will be a key window for testing fundamentals. If we can spend it smoothly, the inflection point in the liquor sector is expected to gradually be realized.” Shen Hao further pointed out. In terms of market conditions, Shen Hao judged that starting in the third quarter of the second half of the year, along with continuous improvement in macroeconomic data such as CPI and PPI, consumer confidence will pick up, and the signs of marginal recovery in the industry are clear, the sector is expected to usher in the second phase of valuation repair.