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According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.2%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until October is 34.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.7%.

Zhitongcaijing·08/10/2026 22:09:10
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According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch”, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.2%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until October is 34.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 14.7%.