RBC Tweaks Model for BBVA Post-Q2 Earnings; Sector Perform Rating Maintained

06:22 AM EDT, 08/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets updated its model for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.MC, BVA.L), or BBVA, revising its price target and earnings forecasts, after the Spanish lender published its second-quarter results. "Our FY27 profit before tax estimate increases by 8% driven by higher [net interest income] (loan growth & FX) and fee income, which are partly offset by higher cost growth and impairments (Group cost of risk broadly unchanged). On a divisional basis, the change is driven by Mexico (NII) and Rest of Business (higher NII and fee income), which are partly offset by a higher Corporate Centre loss. Excluding the more positive FX outlook for the [Mexican peso and Turkish lira] since our last model update, our FY27 profit before tax estimate would have increased by c.5%. The increase in our PT is also driven by a [c.50-basis-point] increase to our blended sum-of-the-parts assumed growth rate," according to a Monday note. The research firm now projects a cumulative net profit of 49.7 billion euros for the 2025 to 2028 period. "Compared to management's medium-term guidance, our estimates continue to be more conservative in Turkey and are broadly in line in Spain & Mexico (in cc)," analysts added. RBC forecasts 43 billion euros in total shareholder distributions for 2025 to 2028, split between 23 billion euros worth of dividends and 20 billion euros in share buybacks. The research firm also expects the bank to announce an additional share repurchase worth 4.5 billion euros alongside its 2026 results. Against this backdrop, RBC lifted its price target to 24 euros from 20.50 euros and affirmed its sector perform rating.