Allianz Kept at Buy as Berenberg Expects Earnings Growth Led by AI, Asset Management Inflows

04:46 AM EDT, 08/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg expects Allianz's (ALV.F) future profitability to be fueled by artificial intelligence-driven restructuring investment and an anticipated increase in asset management net inflows, as analysts took note of the German insurer's first-half earnings. "Allianz highlighted two numbers in its H1 2026 results conference call on 7 August that we believe provide significant extra upside to the group's earnings growth target. These were 6% growth [per annum] in terms of operating profit for 2024-27 and 7-9% pa in terms of core EPS. The first number is being driven by net inflows in asset management running at a similar pace in Q3 to date as the EUR84bn net inflows achieved in H1 2026. We estimate that this implies net inflows of cEUR14bn per month, and if this persists for the remainder of 2026, then third-party assets under management would potentially rise to cEUR2.3trn, c6% above consensus at EUR2.168trn," according to a Monday note. "The second number is being driven by the EUR1.1bn investment in restructuring in 2026, which is set to produce a return of c20% at the operating profit level. While this would be a relatively modest EUR220m return at the group level, this represents investment in AI that we believe will accelerate going forward," the research firm added. Against this backdrop, analysts project full-year 2027 consensus operating profit forecasts will grow to 19.9 billion euros from 19.4 billion euros, reflecting a 7% compound annual growth rate across 2025 to 2027. The research firm noted that this beats the German insurer's 6% growth target, which would "likely support" a continued stock re-rating. Berenberg maintained its buy rating and price target of 684 euros on the stock.