Bernstein Expects Novo Nordisk to Continue Facing US GLP-1 Share Loss, Margin Pressure

02:29 AM EDT, 08/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Bernstein revised its price target and earnings forecasts for Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO), as analysts anticipate persistent headwinds for the Danish drugmaker's weight loss treatments in the US. The research firm said Monday it incorporated late-stage asset coramitug into its model, which mechanically boosted its full-year 2026 to 2031 group sales and operating profit forecasts by 2% to 5%. As such, EPS projections for the period were raised by 2% to 4%, nudging Bernstein's EPS compound annual growth rate forecast to 3.7% from 3.4%, though the figure still lags Novo's European peers by 420 basis points. "Our new '26-31e EPS are up to 15% < consensus (Bloomberg) as we continue to expect worse GLP-1 injectable share losses and deflation (both in the US). Our bull-bear is still negatively skewed, and the catalyst cupboard looks bare to us. We also don't believe that the 10x PE26e implied by our Price Target is extreme as it still implies premia to stocks with deeper moats like Sanofi [SAN.PA] (O) on our global large cap pharma EV/sales regression analysis," the note said. Bernstein said its EPS assumptions for Novo Nordisk remain below consensus due to anticipated US GLP-1 share losses to Eli Lilly (LLY.SW, LLY.F) in both injectable and oral obesity medications, with Wegovy pill expected to lose the majority share to Foundayo by 2028. Analysts also forecast that steeper-than-expected price deflation in the US GLP-1 market will likely compress the company's margins. The research firm lifted its price target on the underperform-rated stock to 203 Danish kroner from 200 kroner. "Reverse engineering our DCF implies the SP discounts 5% perpetuity growth. We think this is extreme given the semaglutide patent expiries (2026-2032e)," analysts added.