TrendForce Jibang Consulting: iPhone 18 Pro costs are expected to rise by nearly 40%, Apple (AAPL.US) may actively narrow gross profit to stabilize shipments

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's latest mobile phone industry research, the cost of the iPhone 18 series to be released by Apple (AAPL.US) will be boosting the cost of the iPhone 18 series that Apple (AAPL.US) will release due to rising prices of components, starting with memory. Take the BOM (Bill of Materials) cost of the 256GB version of this series as an example. The estimated annual increase is about 38%, and the sales price of the whole machine is bound to increase. In order to avoid affecting consumers' desire to buy, Apple may control price increases by reducing gross profit in exchange for market share expansion.

Analyzing the 256GB BOM cost of the last two iPhone Pro series, the share of memory grew rapidly from about 10% a year ago to around 34% in the third quarter of 2026. It is expected to exceed 40% by the first half of 2027, changing the situation dominated by APs (application processors) and panels in the past. Affected by the rise in memory prices, TrendForce Jibang Consulting estimates that the cost of the iPhone 18 Pro 256GB in the third quarter will be about 38% higher than the new model in the same period in 2025; in 2027, the iPhone 18 Pro 256GB cost increase may expand further as estimated memory prices continue to rise.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting said that based on recent pricing strategies for new MacBook products, Apple may reduce the price adjustment margin of the iPhone 18 Pro series by adjusting gross margins, thereby stabilizing shipments. In addition, Apple may also reconsider the pricing mechanism for older models. It is not ruled out that the price of old models will be raised simultaneously after the new models are released to cushion the impact of rising memory.

Apple, which has excellent profit performance, is still facing such pressure, and the test of gross margin on the Android (Android) camp will be even more significant. If costs are to be reflected on the premise of maintaining basic operations and avoiding falling into negative gross profit, the price increase of the whole unit will be more significant than that of the iPhone. Among them, due to limited margin buffer space in the middle- and low-end model market, in the face of a cumulative increase in memory prices of five to seven times since the beginning of 2025, brands have only been able to drastically adjust or limit prices, and have already fallen into a negative gross profit product line. TrendForce Jibang Consulting estimates that as memory costs continue to rise, the global smartphone output scale will continue to face downward pressure from the second half of 2026 to 2027.