Bank of China International: The generalization ability of large models is the main bottleneck in commercialization of robots, giving the industry a better rating than the market

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of China International released a research report saying that humanoid robots, as the ideal carrier for embodying intelligence, have already crossed the mass production threshold in 2025. Currently, the main bottlenecks hindering large-scale commercialization are insufficient generalization capabilities of large models, etc. In the future, with the rapid development of models, computing power, and data, they are expected to gradually break through. The domestic industrial chain is currently in a leading position in the world with unique policy support, strong industrial chain depth and cost advantages. It is expected that the future will fully benefit from large-scale deployment of humanoid robots. It is recommended to focus on core zero, which can take the lead in fulfilling orders and revenue The parts section gave the industry a better rating than the market.

Bank of China International's main views are as follows:

Humanoid robots are ideal carriers for embodied intelligence, and will cross the mass production threshold in 2025

With the gradual maturity of humanoid robot hardware technology and the rapid development of large-scale AI models, driven by multiple factors such as policy support and increased investment in many countries, the humanoid robot industry ushered in a historic inflection point. Many domestic and foreign manufacturers achieved large-scale mass production in 2025. According to statistics from Omdia and the bank, global humanoid robot shipments in 2025 were about 14,800 units, a significant increase over 2024, and a significant breakthrough was achieved in the domestic robot order scale in 2025. Judging from the plans of various body manufacturers at home and abroad, the next two years will be a key point in the industrialization of humanoid robots.

Hardware mobility is improving rapidly, and the ability to generalize large models is currently the main bottleneck in commercialization

In the past two years, domestic and foreign humanoid robot manufacturers have made significant progress in their physical motion capabilities. Judging from the level of hardware currently shown by humanoid robots, the bank believes that the bottleneck that can meet the basic requirements of implementation and hinder large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots is still low, mainly the level of intelligence centered on the “brain” is still low. On the one hand, the current relatively mature large VLA model has certain bottlenecks in terms of generalization ability, and the world model with strong generalization capabilities is still in its early stages. On the other hand, the high-density and high-quality data required for the implementation of humanoid robots is currently seriously lacking. Downstream application scenarios are still limited to structured scenarios such as industrial and vertical applications, and are still a long way from being applied in unstructured scenarios for household services.

The rapid development of algorithms, computing power, and data helps break through bottlenecks in model generalization capabilities

On the model side, the world model is developing rapidly; in terms of computing power, with algorithm optimization, inference engineering improvements, and the expansion of computing power infrastructure for large models, the supply of computing power has grown rapidly, and inference costs have declined rapidly in the past two years, and training and reasoning costs for humanoid robot “brains” are expected to drop simultaneously; in terms of data, the government and manufacturers are speeding up the layout to make up for data shortcomings. The rapid development of algorithms, computing power, and data, which are the three major elements of physical AI, is expected to help humanoid robots break through the bottleneck of insufficient model generalization capabilities.

Policies, capital, and technology resonate, and the obvious advantages of the domestic industrial chain are expected to fully benefit

With unique domestic policies and financial support systems, a strong manufacturing base and supply chain depth, and large-scale cost advantages, China's humanoid robot industrialization and component cost reduction are currently in a leading position in the world. The top six global humanoid robot shipments in 2025 are all Chinese companies, accounting for a total share of 87.87% of the world's shipments. In the future, as humanoid robots move towards large-scale commercial application, the domestic industrial chain may fully benefit, especially the core component sector, which will take the lead in fulfilling related orders and revenue.

Exercise plans are gradually converging, and aspects such as dexterous hands, electronic skin, and heat dissipation are still being iterated

Looking at the various components of a humanoid robot, a typical humanoid robot architecture includes a sensing system, a decision-making and control system, an execution system, and other components. Among them, rotary actuators, linear actuators, and dexterous hands as execution systems account for the main cost components. At present, electric drive execution systems with motors, speed reducers, and screws as the main core components have become the choice of most manufacturers. The movement scheme technology route for humanoid robots has converged, and the certainty is high. However, links such as dexterous hands, electronic skin, and heat dissipation are limited by factors such as current technical level and cost, and are still in the exploration stage of the technical route. Despite some uncertainty, there is still considerable room for development.

valuation

Currently, the humanoid robot industry is still at a critical stage in the transition from technical verification to large-scale mass production, focusing on core components that are expected to take the lead in fulfilling orders and revenue. It is recommended to focus on Hengli Hydraulics, Green Harmonics, Zhejiang Rongtai, Beite Technology, Zhenyu Technology, Tuopu Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Wuzhou Xinchun, Mingzhi Electric, Buke Co., Ltd., Riying Electronics, Hanwei Technology, Coli Sensor, etc.

The main risks faced by ratings

The risk that the humanoid robot commercialization process falls short of expectations; the risk of technology iteration; the risk of declining profitability.