Cathay Pacific Haitong: The pipeline layout of domestic innovative drug companies shows strong competitiveness in the new era of Alzheimer's disease treatment and disease modification

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that China's neurodegenerative disease drug market is about 2.6 billion US dollars in 2025, and is expected to increase to 5.5 billion US dollars in 2030 (CAGR about 16.0%), which is significantly faster than the global growth rate of 8.1%. The burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) disease is huge and continues to expand. Traditional symptomatic drugs have entered a plateau. Anti-Abeta monoclonal antibodies have opened a new era of disease-modifying treatment (DMT). Multi-mechanism small molecules and next-generation brain transduction technology are expected to further break through the blood-brain barrier delivery bottleneck, and the pipeline layout of domestic innovative drug companies has shown strong competitiveness.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

The burden of disease is huge, and disease-modifying therapies open up room for market expansion

The number of cases of Alzheimer's disease in China increased from 12.5 million in 2020 to 15.1 million in 2025. It is expected to reach 18.0 and 21.5 million cases in 2030 and 2035, respectively, and the growth rate will continue to surpass the world. China's neurodegenerative disease drug market is about 2.6 billion US dollars in 2025, and is expected to grow to 5.5 billion US dollars in 2030 (CAGR about 16.0%), which is significantly faster than the global growth rate of 8.1%.

The growth of traditional symptomatic drugs is slowing down, and Abeta-monoclonal DMT therapy accelerates penetration

Traditional drugs such as donepezil can only improve symptoms and have entered a plateau; Abeta monoclonal antibodies such as luncanemab and donezumab have been approved one after another since 2023, achieving a breakthrough in removing Abeta from the source, and the AD treatment market is accelerating the shift from symptomatic treatment to disease-modifying therapy.

Aβ monoclonal antibodies still have limitations, and multi-mechanism oral administration of small molecules is expected to be an important supplement

Poor adherence to intravenous infusion, ARIA risk, and high cost limit its dosage; the oral Abeta aggregation inhibitor ALZ-801 has shown significant curative efficacy and brain protection in the early MCI subgroup, highlighting the advantages of convenient administration.

Next-generation brain-penetrating technology improves delivery efficiency and reduces security risks

Techniques such as receptor-mediated transport (TfR/aTV platform) and focused ultrasound broke through the blood-brain barrier bottleneck. Animal models showed that drug concentrations in the brain increased 5-8 times and ARIA-like lesions were almost eliminated.

Domestic related companies' pipeline layout shows competitiveness

Connoya CM383 (half-life superior to marketed anti-Abeta antibodies), Huaplatin Pharmaceuticals (NEU2005 double antibody, NEU3001 AOC), Kangfang Biotech AK152 (China's first Aβ/BBB double antibody, has entered phase I), and Xinhua Pharmaceuticals OAB-14 (oral RXR agonist with a novel mechanism of action, phase 2a has completed enrollment).

Risk Alerts

The risk of innovative drug development failure, risk of clinical progress falling short of expectations, risk of drug sales volume falling short of expectations, risk of domestic drug licensing falling short of expectations.