Earnings Miss: Tekscend Photomask Corp. Missed EPS By 12% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Tekscend Photomask Corp. (TSE:429A) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 6.7% to JP¥3,670 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥35b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit JP¥53.36 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Tekscend Photomask's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥147.2b in 2027. This would reflect a decent 9.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be JP¥251, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥146.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥264 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Tekscend Photomask

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥4,980, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tekscend Photomask at JP¥5,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,400. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 13% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 13% annual growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that Tekscend Photomask is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tekscend Photomask's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Tekscend Photomask going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Tekscend Photomask (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.