Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) Second-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.1% to US$1.57. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 3,665% toUS$0.75 per share. Revenues of US$47m did beat expectations by 3.2%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Gevo's five analysts is for revenues of US$191.2m in 2026. This would reflect an okay 7.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 85% to US$0.14. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$187.8m and losses of US$0.17 per share in 2026. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading their numbers and making a very promising decrease in losses per share in particular.

See our latest analysis for Gevo

The average price target held steady at US$5.39, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gevo at US$14.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.80. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Gevo's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 78% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Gevo's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Gevo analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Gevo's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.