Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of SGL Carbon SE (ETR:SGL) After Its First-Quarter Report

Shareholders of SGL Carbon SE (ETR:SGL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to €4.28 following its latest first-quarter results. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from four analysts covering SGL Carbon is for revenues of €748.9m in 2026. This implies a small 5.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with SGL Carbon forecast to report a statutory profit of €0.21 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €748.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.18 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

See our latest analysis for SGL Carbon

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €4.61, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SGL Carbon at €5.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €4.15. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting SGL Carbon is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the SGL Carbon's past performance and to peers in the same industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that SGL Carbon's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 7.1% to the end of 2026. This tops off a historical decline of 4.0% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect SGL Carbon to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards SGL Carbon following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that SGL Carbon's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple SGL Carbon analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for SGL Carbon that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.